Deutsche Bank, merkez bankas\u0131 rezervlerindeki de\u011fi\u015fimleri jeopoliti\u011fin (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi) kaymas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriyor. Buna g\u00f6re y\u00f6nelim, ABD dolar\u0131ndan uzakla\u015f\u0131p alt\u0131na (fiziki alt\u0131n) do\u011fru. Banka; alt\u0131n\u0131n rezervlerdeki pay\u0131n\u0131, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n stoklar\u0131, alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz (FX) rezervlerinin toplam d\u00fczeyiyle ili\u015fkilendiren bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve (analiz modeli) ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n
Makale, 1989 sonras\u0131 ABD liderli\u011findeki k\u00fcresel d\u00fczenin y\u00fckseli\u015fini, bug\u00fcn\u00fcn daha par\u00e7al\u0131 ortam\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Alt\u0131n\u0131n rezervlerdeki rol\u00fcn\u00fcn gerilemesinin, 1970\u2019lerde Bretton Woods (sabit kur sisteminin temeli olan d\u00fczen) sonras\u0131 de\u011fil, 1990\u2019larda jeopolitik de\u011fi\u015fim sonras\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Rapor, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131 rezervlerindeki pay\u0131n\u0131n %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinden %40\u2019a geriledi\u011fini belirtiyor. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde alt\u0131n\u0131n pay\u0131n\u0131n, dip seviyesinden \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karak %30\u2019a y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7er\u00e7eve \u00fc\u00e7 ana unsuru \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor: merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n tuttu\u011fu alt\u0131n miktar\u0131, alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 ve toplam k\u00fcresel FX (d\u00f6viz) rezervleri. \u00dc\u00e7 alandaki hareketin de a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla geli\u015fen \u00fclke (emerging market) merkez bankalar\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131; alt\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131 ve FX rezervlerinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurgulan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik de\u011fi\u015fim, k\u00fcresel finans d\u00fczenini (para ve sermaye ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n genel yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131) yeniden \u015fekillendirerek merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 dolar yerine alt\u0131n\u0131 tercih etmeye itiyor. Bu y\u00f6nelim para politikas\u0131ndan (faiz ve likidite kararlar\u0131) \u00e7ok, d\u00fcnya g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesindeki de\u011fi\u015fime verilen bir tepki olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00dclkelerin dolara ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir e\u011filim i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu e\u011filim, D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin (World Gold Council) verileriyle destekleniyor: 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde merkez bankalar\u0131 k\u00fcresel rezervlere 290 ton ekledi. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7, 2025 boyunca g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve 1.000 tonun \u00fczerinde al\u0131mla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen y\u00fcksek seviyeli talebin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Geli\u015fen \u00fclke bankalar\u0131ndan s\u00fcren talep, alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayan destek) olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 anda dolar\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervlerindeki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 zay\u0131flamaya devam ediyor. IMF\u2019nin (Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu) 2025 sonu verileri, dolar\u0131n \u201ctahsis edilen rezervler\u201d (para birimi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 raporlanan rezervler) i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131n\u0131n %58,2\u2019ye geriledi\u011fini; bunun uzun y\u0131llard\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen bir seviye oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. S\u00fcregelen ticaret gerilimleri ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar, \u00fclkeleri alternatif aramaya y\u00f6neltiyor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, bu y\u0131l ons ba\u015f\u0131na 2.450 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan alt\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bir se\u00e7enek, alt\u0131n ETF\u2019leri (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) veya bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019i (bull call spread: iki call kullan\u0131p maliyet ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) kullanarak y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak olabilir. Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n kesintisiz al\u0131mlar\u0131, piyasaya g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek (tailwind: fiyat\u0131 yukar\u0131 iten ana etken) sa\u011fl\u0131yor ve bunun k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede tersine d\u00f6nmesi zor g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Alttaki jeopolitik gerilim, dalgalanman\u0131n (volatilite: fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu da opsiyonlar\u0131 daha pahal\u0131 yaparken, do\u011fru pozisyonda de\u011ferlerini art\u0131rabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca zay\u0131flayan dolardan faydalanan stratejileri de de\u011ferlendirebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131). Bu, \u201cdedolarizasyon\u201d (dolar kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131) e\u011filiminin di\u011fer taraf\u0131n\u0131 i\u015flemeye (pozisyon almaya) imk\u00e2n verir.<\/p>\n
Geli\u015fen \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu hareketin ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc onlar. Devam eden al\u0131mlar alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itiyor. D\u00f6viz rezervlerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ba\u015flay\u0131p ba\u015flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 da \u00f6nemli; bu, k\u00fcresel sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131nda (paran\u0131n \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc) belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret edebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar\u0131n rezervlerdeki pay\u0131 eriyor, alt\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fte: Deutsche Bank\u2019a g\u00f6re jeopolitik kayma dedolarizasyonu h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131yor. EM merkez bankalar\u0131 2026\u2019da 290 ton ald\u0131; ons 2.450$ \u00fcst\u00fc bask\u0131 s\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45774","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45774","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45774"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45774\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45774"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45774"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45774"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}