ABD EIA verilerine g\u00f6re 24 Nisan ile biten haftada ham petrol stoklar\u0131 6,233 milyon varil azald\u0131. Bir \u00f6nceki veri 1,925 milyon varil art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00fcncelleme ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nden (EIA) geliyor. EIA, ABD\u2019de ham petrol stok seviyelerindeki haftal\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimi a\u00e7\u0131klar.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda 6,2 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde, dikkat \u00e7ekici ve beklentilerin \u00fczerinde bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu, bir \u00f6nceki haftaki stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n tersine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f. Bu kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck bir azal\u0131\u015f, talebin (al\u0131m ve t\u00fcketim) tahmin edilenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fine ve piyasada arz\u0131n (piyasaya sunulan miktar\u0131n) yetersiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, May\u0131s\u2019a girerken ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in temel a\u00e7\u0131dan olumlu (yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc) bir sinyal.<\/p>\n
Bu stok raporu, yaz aylar\u0131nda ara\u00e7 kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cyaz s\u00fcr\u00fc\u015f sezonu\u201d \u00f6ncesine denk geliyor. Bu d\u00f6nem, benzin t\u00fcketimini ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla rafinerilerin ham petrol talebini genellikle art\u0131r\u0131r. Son sekt\u00f6r verileri, ABD\u2019de rafineri kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n %90,1\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131, rafinerilerin mevcut kapasitesinin ne kadar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlat\u0131r; y\u00fckseli\u015f, \u00fcretimin sezonluk art\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir. Bu e\u011filimin k\u0131sa vadede fiyatlar\u0131 desteklemesi beklenebilir.<\/p>\n
Olumlu stok verisi, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik aktivite ve s\u00fcren jeopolitik risklerin fiyatlara ekledi\u011fi \u201crisk primi\u201d (belirsizlik nedeniyle fiyata yans\u0131yan ekstra pay) ile daha da g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Son imalat PMI verisi 52,5 geldi. PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi), 50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funda sekt\u00f6rde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret eder; bu da enerji t\u00fcketimini destekler. \u00d6te yandan, kritik deniz ge\u00e7i\u015f noktalar\u0131ndaki (dar ve stratejik bo\u011fazlar\/kanallar) ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k aksamalar\u0131 k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirini (\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00fcretimden teslimata uzanan ak\u0131\u015f\u0131) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak fiyatlara yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 ekliyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasa i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu ortam, uzun (al\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) pozisyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler, de\u011feri ham petrol gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerdir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda WTI vadeli i\u015flemlerinin (gelecek tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan kontratlar) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesine do\u011fru kal\u0131c\u0131 bir hareket denemesi g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejiler kapsam\u0131nda, WTI veya Brent kontratlar\u0131nda al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak ya da call spread (iki farkl\u0131 fiyattan call al\u0131p-satma ile maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren strateji) de\u011ferlendirilerek beklenen y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrpriz niteli\u011fi nedeniyle petrol opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) artmas\u0131 beklenir. Bu, opsiyonlar\u0131 pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r; ancak \u201cnakit teminatl\u0131 put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d (cash-secured put: olas\u0131 al\u0131m i\u00e7in nakit ay\u0131rarak sat\u0131m opsiyonu satmak) veya \u201cput kredi spread\u201d (put credit spread: iki put ile prim geliri hedefleyen, riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 strateji) gibi y\u00f6ntemlere alan a\u00e7abilir. Bu pozisyonlar, y\u00fckseli\u015f ya da yataya yak\u0131n bir beklentiyi ifade ederken daha y\u00fcksek primlerden (opsiyon \u00fccreti) yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde s\u00fcrpriz sinyal: EIA\u2019ya g\u00f6re ham petrol stoklar\u0131 24 Nisan haftas\u0131nda 6,233 milyon varil geriledi. Rafineri kullan\u0131m\u0131 %90,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; talep g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. WTI\u2019da 95 dolar direnci, oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45773","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45773"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45773\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45773"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45773"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45773"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}