ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump taraf\u0131ndan ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131na aday g\u00f6sterilen Kevin Warsh, ABD Senatosu Bankac\u0131l\u0131k Komitesi\u2019nden onay ald\u0131. Komite oylamas\u0131 13-11 sonu\u00e7land\u0131; Cumhuriyet\u00e7iler Demokratlardan fazlayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Warsh \u015fimdi Senato Genel Kurulu\u2019nda yap\u0131lacak nihai onay oylamas\u0131na gidiyor. Onaylan\u0131rsa, g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi 15 May\u0131s\u2019ta bitecek olan Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n yerini alacak.<\/p>\n
ABD Senat\u00f6r\u00fc Elizabeth Warren bu ad\u0131ma kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve \u201cWarsh\u2019\u0131 ilerletmek i\u00e7in verilen bir oy, Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Fed\u2019i kontrol etmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmak i\u00e7in verilen bir oydur\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Fed\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131na ge\u00e7mesine bir ad\u0131m daha yakla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, piyasalarda dalgalanman\u0131n artmas\u0131 riskini y\u00fckseltiyor. Warsh, Powell\u2019a g\u00f6re daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. VIX (S&P 500 opsiyonlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasadaki korku\/dalgalanma beklentisini g\u00f6steren endeks) bu hafta 18,5 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi. Nihai oylama yakla\u015f\u0131rken koruma ama\u00e7l\u0131 i\u015flem (portf\u00f6y de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan hedge) ihtiyac\u0131 art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Tahvil piyasas\u0131 da bu olas\u0131 liderlik de\u011fi\u015fimine tepki veriyor. Bu geli\u015fme, Mart 2026 T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi, enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisinin enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen, y\u00fcksek seyreden) oldu\u011funu ve %3,1\u2019de kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesinin hemen ard\u0131ndan geldi. Fed politikas\u0131na \u00e7ok duyarl\u0131 olan iki y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili getirisi, a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 15 baz puan (0,15 puan) artarak %4,85\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Piyasada yaz aylar\u0131na kadar daha sert bir Fed \u00e7izgisi beklentisiyle, faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar (belirli bir fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00fczerinden pozisyon aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda beklenmedik enflasyon verilerinin Fed\u2019i \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimi\/gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131 e\u011filimli) y\u00f6nlendirmesini geri \u00e7ekmeye zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemdeki sert piyasa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fleri hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. \u015eimdi benzer bir belirsizlik ortam\u0131 var; bu kez itici g\u00fc\u00e7, olas\u0131 liderlik ve yakla\u015f\u0131m de\u011fi\u015fimi. Tarihsel olarak piyasalar, Fed politikas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez olmas\u0131na olumsuz tepki verir; 2018\u2019de Fed\u2019in agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fanan sert sat\u0131\u015flar buna \u00f6rnek g\u00f6sterilir.<\/p>\n
Powell\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresinin 15 May\u0131s\u2019ta bitmesi nedeniyle, May\u0131s sonu ve Haziran vadeli hisse endeksi opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cima edilen volatilite\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) pahal\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor. \u201cSkew\u201d (opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruma talebi artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta niteli\u011findeki opsiyonlar\u0131n daha pahal\u0131 hale gelmesi) belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckseliyor; S&P 500\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan put opsiyonlar\u0131na talep, y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131nan call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n portf\u00f6ylerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmesi gerekiyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Warsh y\u00f6netimindeki bir Fed, varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemekten \u00e7ok enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleyi \u00f6ne koyabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fed\u2019de kritik viraj: Trump\u2019\u0131n aday\u0131 Kevin Warsh, Senato Bankac\u0131l\u0131k Komitesi\u2019nden 13-11 ge\u00e7ti; \u015fimdi Genel Kurul\u2019a gidiyor. \u015eahin beklenti VIX\u2019i 18,5\u2019e, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizi %4,85\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Koruma maliyeti art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45772","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45772","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45772"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45772\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45772"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45772"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45772"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}