Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), Elliott Dalga kuram\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; son y\u0131llarda daha y\u00fcksek zirveler ve daha y\u00fcksek dipler yapt\u0131. Y\u00fckseli\u015f, \u201cimpulsif\u201d (trend y\u00f6n\u00fcnde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ilerleyen) bir d\u00f6ng\u00fc olarak etiketleniyor ve d\u00fczeltme ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce ((3)) numaral\u0131 dalgaya kadar ilerledi.<\/p>\n
((3)) dalgas\u0131 bittikten sonra hisse ((4)) dalgas\u0131na ge\u00e7ti. Bu b\u00f6l\u00fcm \u201ckarma\u015f\u0131k d\u00fczeltme\u201d olarak sunuluyor. D\u00fczeltme, W-X-Y formasyonu (genelde yataydan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma ve birden fazla ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f i\u00e7eren yap\u0131) olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
((4)) dalgas\u0131n\u0131n 433\u2013388 aras\u0131ndaki destek b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmesi bekleniyor. Bu b\u00f6lge, Fibonacci seviyeleriyle ili\u015fkilendiriliyor. Fibonacci (fiyat\u0131n olas\u0131 destek\/diren\u00e7 noktalar\u0131n\u0131 oranlarla \u00f6l\u00e7en teknik analiz arac\u0131) kapsam\u0131nda 1,0 ve 1,618 \u201cuzatma\u201d (\u00f6nceki hareketin belirli oranlarda devam\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm) seviyelerine at\u0131f yap\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
((4)) dalgas\u0131 tamamland\u0131ktan sonra bir sonraki y\u00fckseli\u015f ((5)) dalgas\u0131 olarak etiketleniyor. Bu hareketin, \u00f6nceki ((3)) zirvesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak uzun vadeli trendi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Metin ayr\u0131ca, d\u00fczeltmenin 433\u2013388 b\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7inde 3, 7 veya 11 \u201csal\u0131n\u0131m\u201d (fiyat\u0131n dip-zirve aras\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bacak say\u0131s\u0131) yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 tamamlamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan olu\u015fabilecek f\u0131rsatlara de\u011finiyor. Genel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, bu aral\u0131\u011fa bir geri \u00e7ekilmenin ard\u0131ndan yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f faz\u0131n\u0131n gelebilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n
Berkshire Hathaway\u2019in uzun vadede y\u00fckseli\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde oldu\u011fu, ancak \u015fu an d\u00fczeltme geri \u00e7ekilmesi ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemi yapanlar\u0131n (opsiyon\/benzeri \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle) sab\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131 isteniyor; hissenin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 433\u2013388 band\u0131nda taban (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn durdu\u011fu alan) bulmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu beklenen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015fla e\u015flik etmek uygun g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Beklenen bu geri \u00e7ekilme, daha geni\u015f piyasa belirsizli\u011fiyle de uyumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; Nisan 2026 enflasyon verisi sonras\u0131 vadeli piyasalarda (gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck fiyatlama yap\u0131lan piyasalar) Fed\u2019in faiz indiriminin \u00f6telenebilece\u011fi fiyatlan\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n Berkshire\u2019\u0131n temel verilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor: 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek faaliyet k\u00e2r\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %8 artt\u0131; art\u0131\u015f\u0131n sigorta ve demiryolu birimlerinden geldi\u011fi belirtiliyor. \u015eirketin nakit birikimi de 210 milyar dolarla rekor seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu tutar\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir tampon (olas\u0131 \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 koruma) sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurgulan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Pratik yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak, 433\u2013388 destek b\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7inde kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi fiyat) \u201cnakit teminatl\u0131 put\u201d sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (cash-secured put: olas\u0131 hisse al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layacak nakit ayr\u0131larak put satmak) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Vadesi 45\u201360 g\u00fcn olan opsiyonlarla (\u00f6r. Haziran veya Temmuz 2026) \u201cprim\u201d (opsiyon fiyat\u0131) toplan\u0131rken beklenen dip olu\u015fumu izlenebilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, hisse kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rsa primin gelir olarak kalmas\u0131na; alt\u0131na inerse daha cazip fiyattan hisse edinmeye imkan verir.<\/p>\n
Alternatif olarak, hisse destek b\u00f6lgesinde dengelenme sinyali verirse \u201ccall\u201d opsiyonu almak (y\u00fckseli\u015ften yararlanma hakk\u0131) veya \u201cbull call spread\u201d kurmak (ayn\u0131 vadede bir call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli y\u00fckseli\u015f stratejisi) se\u00e7enekleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. \u0130\u015fleme girmeden \u00f6nce net bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f formasyonu aranmas\u0131 ve hedefin hissenin eski zirvelerinin \u00fczerine y\u00f6nelmesi \u00f6neriliyor. 2025 ba\u015f\u0131nda benzer bir tabloda k\u0131sa bir s\u0131k\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan takip eden \u00e7eyrekte %15\u2019lik y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
D\u00fczeltme yap\u0131lar\u0131 karma\u015f\u0131k olabildi\u011fi i\u00e7in pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn (i\u015fleme ayr\u0131lan sermaye miktar\u0131) kontrol edilmesi gerekti\u011fi vurgulan\u0131yor. Hisse destek band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi volatilite) artabilir; bu durum opsiyon primlerini al\u0131c\u0131 i\u00e7in pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken sat\u0131c\u0131 i\u00e7in daha cazip hale getirebilir. Bu da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ilk a\u015famalar\u0131nda put satman\u0131n avantaj\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BRK.B\u2019de Elliott\u2019a g\u00f6re y\u00fckseli\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; ancak ((4)) dalgas\u0131nda 433\u2013388 Fibonacci destek band\u0131na \u00e7ekilme bekleniyor. Taban sonras\u0131 ((5)) dalgas\u0131 hedef. Strateji: nakit teminatl\u0131 put, d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fte call\/bull spread.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45770","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45770"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45770\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45770"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45770"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45770"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}