G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f (XAG\/USD) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc %1,02 d\u00fc\u015ferek 74,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalamay\u0131nca yakla\u015f\u0131k 72,30 dolara geriledi. 72,00 dolar civar\u0131ndaki dipten gelen tepki al\u0131m\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; piyasalar ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) karar\u0131n\u0131 bekledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n (faiz ve likidite duru\u015fu) s\u0131k\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu. Fed\u2019in faizi %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Piyasalar, gelecek ad\u0131mlara dair ipucu i\u00e7in Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n konu\u015fmas\u0131na odaklanacak.<\/p>\n
\u201cFaizler daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalacak\u201d beklentisi, faiz getirisi olmayan (faiz \u00f6demeyen) varl\u0131klar\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n maliyetini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in de\u011ferli metalleri bask\u0131lad\u0131. Devam eden enflasyon endi\u015feleriyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak tahvil getirilerinin y\u00fckselmesi de g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f talebini zay\u0131flatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilimler de bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fme, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor. Wall Street Journal\u2019a g\u00f6re ABD y\u00f6netimi, \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ekonomik ablukay\u0131 (ticaret ve finans kanallar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlama) uzatmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyor. Bu durum petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutarak enflasyon beklentilerini canl\u0131 tutabilir.<\/p>\n
TD Securities, enflasyon b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yava\u015flat\u0131rken faizler y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rsa g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskinin artabilece\u011fini belirtti. Kurum ayr\u0131ca sanayi talebinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 ve \u201cta\u015f\u0131ma maliyetlerinin\u201d (pozisyonu a\u00e7\u0131k tutman\u0131n finansman ve depolama gibi maliyetleri) y\u00fckselmesini ek bask\u0131 unsurlar\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc; y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde ise arz k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n (temin s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131) destek sa\u011flayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Son veriler bu tabloyu destekliyor. Mart 2026 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI: t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131n sepet baz\u0131nda \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) enflasyonu %3,6 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu da Fed\u2019in politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi sinyali vermesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,75\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu art\u0131\u015f, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 tutman\u0131n \u201cf\u0131rsat maliyetini\u201d (paray\u0131 ba\u015fka yerde de\u011ferlendirmeyerek ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131lan getiri) y\u00fckselterek yatay veya a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat hareketi bekleyen pozisyonlar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Sanayi taraf\u0131nda da zay\u0131flama i\u015faretleri var. Son ISM \u0130malat PMI verisi 49,8\u2019e geriledi. PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi: 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralmaya i\u015faret eder) bu seviyede hafif daralmay\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor ve fiziki g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f talebini zay\u0131flatabilir. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 72,00 dolar destek b\u00f6lgesine olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelere kar\u015f\u0131 riskten korunmak i\u00e7in g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma\/pozisyon) veya al\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019i sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (call spread satmak: iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte kullanarak prim geliri hedefleyen strateji) gibi y\u00f6ntemleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilim, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ve enflasyon beklentilerini y\u00fcksek tutabilecek ek bir belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor. Bu durum k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 getirebilse de, a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi) i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, y\u00f6n se\u00e7meden oynakl\u0131ktaki art\u0131\u015fa oynamak amac\u0131yla straddle\/strangle (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda al\u0131m-sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte almak) stratejilerini g\u00fcndeme getirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 74 dolar\u0131 a\u015famay\u0131nca 72,30\u2019a \u00e7ekildi: Fed\u2019in faizleri uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma beklentisi dolar ve tahvil getirilerini destekliyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi enflasyonu canl\u0131 tutarak bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45764","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45764","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45764"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45764\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45764"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45764"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45764"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}