ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) politika faizini (Fed Funds Rate: bankalar\u0131n birbirlerine gecelik bor\u00e7 verme faizi) %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n da Ba\u015fkan (Chair) olarak son bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yapmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Tart\u0131\u015fmalar, Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n politika yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na odaklan\u0131yor; buna \u201ck\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama enflasyon\u201d (trimmed-mean: a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckselen\/d\u00fc\u015fen kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131larak hesaplanan daha istikrarl\u0131 enflasyon) ve yapay zek\u00e2 kaynakl\u0131 verimlilik art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 d\u00e2hil.<\/p>\n
24 Nisan\u2019da Adalet Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Fed\u2019in bina yenilemeleriyle ilgili soru\u015fturmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bunun ard\u0131ndan Cumhuriyet\u00e7i Senat\u00f6r Thom Tillis, 26 Nisan\u2019da Warsh\u2019\u0131 engelleme tutumundan desteklemeye ge\u00e7ti. Bu geli\u015fme, Powell\u2019\u0131n Ocak 2028\u2019e kadar Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi (Governor) olarak kal\u0131p kalmama karar\u0131n\u0131 etkiliyor.<\/p>\n
Warsh, \u201c\u00e7ekirdek PCE\u201d (core PCE: ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 enflasyonu; g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7) yerine \u201ck\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama enflasyon\u201da a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verilmesini \u00f6neriyor. Ayr\u0131ca yapay zek\u00e2n\u0131n verimlili\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor ve \u201cbarbell yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u201d (bir yandan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz, di\u011fer yandan bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltme) savunuyor. Bu bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131, sava\u015f kaynakl\u0131 enerji fiyat\u0131 risklerini politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn merkezinden uzakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Alan Greenspan\u2019\u0131n 1990\u2019larda \u201c\u00e7ekirdek PCE deflat\u00f6r\u00fc\u201dne (core PCE deflator: PCE fiyat endeksinin \u00e7ekirdek versiyonu) y\u00f6nelmesine benzetiliyor. O d\u00f6nemde bu g\u00f6sterge, T\u00dcFE\u2019den (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in, verimlilik art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla birlikte daha \u201cgev\u015fek\u201d (accommodative: b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekleyen, nispeten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli) politika duru\u015funu desteklemek amac\u0131yla kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Metin ayr\u0131ca, veriler petrol arz fazlas\u0131na (supply glut: arz\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde art\u0131p fiyat\u0131 bask\u0131lamas\u0131) i\u015faret ederse dolar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman primi\u201dni (haven premium: kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde dolara ekstra talep) kaybedebilece\u011fini ve bunun yeni Ba\u015fkan\u2019\u0131n politika de\u011fi\u015fimini destekleyebilece\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Fed faizi %3,50\u2013%3,75\u2019te sabit tutarken, k\u0131sa vadede odak liderlik de\u011fi\u015fimine kaym\u0131\u015f durumda. Jerome Powell g\u00f6revden ayr\u0131lmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor, Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6revi devralmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu da 2025 boyunca g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00e7izgiden belirgin bir politika d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda pozisyonlama a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en kritik de\u011fi\u015fken bu ge\u00e7i\u015f.<\/p>\n
Yeni gelecek Ba\u015fkan\u2019\u0131n \u00e7er\u00e7evesi, \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019yi geri plana itip k\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama enflasyon ve yapay zek\u00e2 kaynakl\u0131 verimlilik kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir kopu\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor. G\u00fcncel veriler de bunu destekliyor: Dallas Fed\u2019in Mart 2026 \u201cK\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f Ortalama PCE\u201d oran\u0131 %2,4\u2019e gerileyerek \u201cman\u015fet PCE\u201dnin (headline PCE: t\u00fcm kalemleri i\u00e7eren genel oran) %2,9 seviyesinin belirgin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu fark, di\u011fer enflasyon g\u00f6stergeleri y\u00fcksek kalsa bile Warsh\u2019a daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz savunusu i\u00e7in dayanak sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Faiz indirirken bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmeye dayal\u0131 bu strateji piyasada \u015fimdiden fiyatlan\u0131yor. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri (fed funds futures: gelecekteki politika faizi beklentisini yans\u0131tan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar 25 baz puan (basis point: y\u00fczde 0,01) faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %75\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle, k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin beklenenden daha erken d\u00fc\u015fmesinden fayda sa\u011flayacak faiz t\u00fcrevlerinde (interest rate derivatives: faize ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem\/opsiyon gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnler) pozisyonlar g\u00fcndeme gelebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri veya opsiyonlar\u0131 (SOFR: ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 repo faizi; k\u0131sa vadeli referans faiz).<\/p>\n
Warsh\u2019\u0131n sav\u0131, 1990\u2019lar\u0131n sonundaki Greenspan d\u00f6nemine benziyor: verimlilik patlamas\u0131 daha destekleyici politika alan\u0131 yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde verimlilik verileri y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (annualized: k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem verisinin y\u0131l geneline uyarlanmas\u0131) %3,5 gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederek, yapay zek\u00e2n\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eken (deflasyonist: fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatan) etkiler yarat\u0131p enflasyonu dengeleyebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu benzerlik, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomiyle birlikte daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz d\u00f6nemini; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla riskli varl\u0131klar (risk assets: hisse senedi, y\u00fcksek getirili tahvil gibi) i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir zemini ima ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki enerji \u015foku (energy shock: petrol\/do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert hareket) etkisini kaybederken dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman rol\u00fc de zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. WTI ham petrol (ABD tipi petrol g\u00f6stergesi) fiyat\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeyken son d\u00f6nemde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na geriledi. Endi\u015feler, OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fcretimde art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yaratabilece\u011fi olas\u0131 arz fazlas\u0131na kay\u0131yor. Bu tablo, dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen \u00f6nemli bir unsuru zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu dinamiklerle, dolara kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n alan d\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131nda (currency options: kur hareketine kar\u015f\u0131 hak veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) f\u0131rsatlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir; \u00f6zellikle merkez bankalar\u0131 daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (hawkish: enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f, y\u00fcksek faiz) kalmas\u0131 beklenen para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (interest rate volatility: faizlerin dalgalanma derecesi) d\u00fc\u015fmesinden fayda sa\u011flayan i\u015flemler de de\u011ferlendirilebilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc yeni Fed y\u00f6netimi gev\u015femeye (easing: faiz indirimi\/likidite art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131) giden daha net ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir rota sinyali veriyor. Bu, ABD Hazine vadeli i\u015flemlerinde straddle satmay\u0131 (straddle: ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte; satmak, oynakl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklemek demektir) uygulanabilir bir strateji h\u00e2line getirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fed faizi sabit; b\u00fcy\u00fck hik\u00e2ye Powell sonras\u0131 olas\u0131 Warsh d\u00f6nemi. \u201cK\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama\u201d enflasyon ve yapay zek\u00e2 verimlili\u011fiyle daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz+bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltme fiyatlan\u0131yor; dolar zay\u0131flayabilir, t\u00fcrevlerde f\u0131rsat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45762","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45762","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45762"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45762\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45762"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45762"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45762"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}