ABD\u2019de konut yap\u0131m\u0131na ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 say\u0131s\u0131 \u015eubat ay\u0131nda 1,356 milyon seviyesine geriledi. Bir \u00f6nceki ay 1,487 milyondu.<\/p>\n
Aydan aya de\u011fi\u015fim, yeni konut in\u015faat\u0131na ba\u015flama say\u0131s\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor. Veriler, \u015eubat ay\u0131n\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki ay\u0131n seviyesiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u015eubat 2026 konut ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 verisi belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. 1,356 milyon seviyesine inen bu rakam, \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re zay\u0131f kalarak y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n (kredi ve bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin) ekonomiyi so\u011futmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu tablo, 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen ekonomik dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n zay\u0131flayabilece\u011fine dair g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sinyal veriyor.<\/p>\n
Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) izleyece\u011fi faiz politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentiler de\u011fi\u015febilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar daha erken faiz indirimi ihtimalini fiyatlamaya ba\u015flayabilir. Bu durumda getirilerin (tahvil faizlerinin) d\u00fc\u015fmesinden yararlanan pozisyonlar, \u00f6rne\u011fin uzun vadeli Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131 (ileride belirlenen fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan borsa s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) daha cazip hale gelebilir. Nisan sonu itibar\u0131yla piyasa h\u00e2l\u00e2 d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte tek bir indirimi fiyatl\u0131yor; zay\u0131fl\u0131k s\u00fcrerse bu durum bir f\u0131rsat yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge (ekonomideki y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimini erken i\u015faret eden veri) oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in hisse piyasas\u0131nda daha korumac\u0131 bir duru\u015f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, geni\u015f endekslerde (SPX gibi) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131) almak veya in\u015faata do\u011frudan duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6r ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) pozisyon almak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin XHB, konut \u00fcreticilerine odaklanan bir ETF\u2019dir. Nisan 2026\u2019da mortgage ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n (konut kredisi ba\u015fvurular\u0131) \u00fc\u00e7 hafta \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00fc\u015fmesi de konut ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 hisseler i\u00e7in olumsuz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131 ile Fed\u2019in \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon\u201d (kolay gerilemeyen, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon) vurgusu aras\u0131ndaki gerilim, piyasalarda belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rabilir. Beklenen volatilitenin (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 beklentisi) y\u00fckselmesi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda VIX endeksi \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonu (fiyat y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan hak) almay\u0131 mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir korunma arac\u0131 (hedge: risk dengeleme i\u015flemi) haline getirebilir. Tarihsel olarak, konut gibi \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergelerde sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler piyasa dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerin \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir; bu \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc 2006 ve 2018 yava\u015flamalar\u0131nda da izlenmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de konut ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131 \u015eubat\u2019ta 1,487 milyondan 1,356 milyona d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: y\u00fcksek faiz freni b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi so\u011futuyor. Fed\u2019de erken indirim fiyatlanabilir; tahvil, SPX put, XHB ve VIX korunmas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45757","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45757","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45757"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45757\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45757"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45757"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45757"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}