ABD\u2019de dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015fleri martta %1,4 geriledi. Bu oran, %0,5 art\u0131\u015f beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Veri, mart sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 piyasa beklentileriyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Beklenen art\u0131\u015f yerine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Mart ay\u0131 dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal raporunda (uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00fcr\u00fcnlere y\u00f6nelik sipari\u015fler; makineler, ekipman, otomobil gibi) %0,5 art\u0131\u015f beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k %1,4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, \u015firket yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda (firmalar\u0131n \u00fcretim kapasitesi i\u00e7in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 harcamalar) belirgin bir yava\u015flamay\u0131 teyit ediyor. Bu tek seferlik bir tablo da de\u011fil; ge\u00e7en hafta i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (i\u015fini kaybedenlerin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 haftal\u0131k ba\u015fvuru say\u0131s\u0131) da 225 bine \u00e7\u0131karak \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine y\u00fckseldi. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ekonomide so\u011fuma ve piyasada oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131) artabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi taraf\u0131nda, geni\u015f endeksleri izleyen SPY ve QQQ gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde koruyucu \u201cput\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Ekonomik d\u00f6ng\u00fcye duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler (sanayi, iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim gibi) daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden, sanayi veya iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim endeks vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda \u201ck\u0131sa\u201d pozisyon (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefi) zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, mevcut \u201cuzun\u201d pozisyonlar\u0131 (y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131m) olas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 dengeleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Beklentiyi a\u015fan bu zay\u0131f veri, belirsizlik artt\u0131k\u00e7a VIX \u00fczerinde (S&P 500 oynakl\u0131k endeksi; piyasa korkusu g\u00f6stergesi) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir. VIX \u015fu s\u0131ralar 17 civar\u0131nda bulunuyor. VIX \u201ccall\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) veya VIX vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisi) olas\u0131 bir s\u0131\u00e7ramadan yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler. Bu da piyasa d\u00fczeltmesi (genel d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) ihtimali artarken koruma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, gelecek haftaki toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) \u00fczerinde para politikas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Piyasa, y\u0131l bitmeden faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131; bu durum tahvil getirilerini (faiz oran\u0131) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. ABD Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon art\u0131rmak, d\u00fc\u015fen faizlerden faydalanma amac\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131flayan ekonomi ve daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ihtimali ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Dolar endeksinde (DXY; dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fc) vadeli kontratlar \u00fczerinden k\u0131sa pozisyon bu beklentiye do\u011frudan bir i\u015flemdir. Ayr\u0131ca sermayenin \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d para birimlerine (kriz d\u00f6neminde talep g\u00f6ren) y\u00f6nelmesiyle Japon yeni ve \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenme g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok veri: ABD\u2019de dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015fleri martta %1,4 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; %0,5 art\u0131\u015f beklentisi bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar yava\u015fl\u0131yor, volatilite artabilir. Fed indirimi fiyatlan\u0131yor; dolar bask\u0131da, g\u00fcvenli limanlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45751","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45751","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45751"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45751\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45751"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45751"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45751"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}