ABD\u2019de savunma (defence) hari\u00e7 dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015fleri martta %-0,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; \u00f6nceki ay %-1,2 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
Bu, ayl\u0131k oran\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 negatif oldu\u011fu, ancak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Mart dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal raporu, beklentiden daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olan %-0,3 ile imalat (sanayi \u00fcretimi) taraf\u0131ndaki yava\u015flaman\u0131n dip (daha fazla bozulmadan \u00f6nceki en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye) buluyor olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, b\u00fcy\u00fcme sinyali de\u011fil; ancak \u015fubattaki %-1,2\u2019lik gerilemeye g\u00f6re iyile\u015fme, daha olumsuz ekonomik tahminlerin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 yumu\u015fatt\u0131. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadede sert bir piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131lan korumalar\u0131 (hedge: olas\u0131 zararlar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in al\u0131nan ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar) azaltmay\u0131 uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bir sonraki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde. Bu veri, agresif bir faiz indirimi ihtimalini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde (Q1 2026) GSYH (GDP: bir \u00fclkenin toplam ekonomik \u00fcretimi) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi zaten s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir %1,5 iken, merkez bankas\u0131 ad\u0131m atmadan \u00f6nce daha fazla kan\u0131t g\u00f6rmek isteyebilir. Bu y\u00fczden 50 baz puanl\u0131k (bp: faiz oran\u0131nda y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri; 50 bp = 0,50 puan) indirime oynayan faiz vadeli i\u015flem (interest rate futures: gelecekteki faiz seviyesine g\u00f6re de\u011ferlenen vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor, bunun yerine \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d (pause: faizde de\u011fi\u015fiklik yapmama) senaryosuna dayal\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u015eirket yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki bu dengeleme, S&P 500 gibi hisse endeksleri i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede taban olu\u015fturabilir. \u00d6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) d\u00fc\u015fmesini bekliyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc en k\u00f6t\u00fc resesyon (ekonomik daralma) senaryolar\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azalm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu ortamda endeks ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyat\u0131n, opsiyonu k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7irmedi\u011fi seviye) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu satmak, prim (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015fin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplamak i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen imalat zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz; bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 sonunda derin bir resesyona d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmeden atlat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Mevcut veri de benzer bir tabloya uyuyor ve sanayi ile teknoloji donan\u0131m\u0131 (hardware: fiziksel teknoloji ekipmanlar\u0131) sekt\u00f6rlerinde dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylara y\u00f6nelik olarak sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 temkinli bi\u00e7imde de\u011ferlendirmeye ba\u015fl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de savunma hari\u00e7 dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015flerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f martta %-0,3\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131: imalatta \u201cdip\u201d sinyali, agresif Fed indirimi fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 t\u00f6rp\u00fcl\u00fcyor; hedge azalt, volatilite d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve sanayi ETF\u2019lerinde temkinli call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45750","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45750","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45750"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45750\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45750"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45750"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45750"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}