Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerindeki etkilerini izlerken politika faizini d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc toplant\u0131da da %2,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Banka, martta \u201cmevcut faiz seviyesi uygun\u201d y\u00f6nlendirmesini kald\u0131rd\u0131; ilk \u00e7eyrekte zay\u0131flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ve enerji \u015fokunun (enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki ani y\u00fckseli\u015f) k\u0131sa vadede fiyatlar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Kanada\u2019n\u0131n T\u00dcFE\u2019si (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi \u2013 halk\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) martta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda \u015fubattaki %1,8\u2019den %2,4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu oran %2 hedefin \u00fczerinde, ancak piyasan\u0131n %2,5 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Banka projeksiyonlar\u0131na g\u00f6re enflasyon y\u0131l sonunda %2,2\u2019ye ve 2027\u2019de %2,1\u2019e gerileyecek.<\/p>\n
Kanada\u2019n\u0131n ABD ile ticari ili\u015fkilerindeki belirsizlikle birlikte b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri zay\u0131flad\u0131. GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la \u2013 ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) 2025 4. \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (d\u00f6nemlik veriyi y\u0131ll\u0131k h\u0131za \u00e7eviren y\u00f6ntem) bazda %0,6 darald\u0131; ayl\u0131k GSYH ocakta %0,1 artt\u0131; mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (takvim ve sezon etkilerinden temizlenmi\u015f) IVEY PMI endeksi (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi \u2013 ekonomik aktiviteyi \u00f6l\u00e7en anket) martta daralma b\u00f6lgesine ge\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n
Faiz karar\u0131 \u00e7ar\u015famba 13:45 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak, ard\u0131ndan 14:30 GMT\u2019de bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 yap\u0131lacak. Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re piyasalar nisandan sonra \u201csabit b\u0131rakma\u201d senaryosunu fiyatl\u0131yor; ankete kat\u0131lan analistlerin %76\u2019s\u0131 2026\u2019da politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi beklemiyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD paritesi mart sonunda 1,4000\u2019e yak\u0131n zirve yapt\u0131; 1,3605 seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 1,3597 oldu. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan seviyeler: 1,3700 ve 1,3800 \u00fczerinde diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fi zorla\u015ft\u0131ran seviye), 1,3525 civar\u0131nda destek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131ran seviye).<\/p>\n
Ana sorun, y\u00fckselen enflasyon ile zay\u0131flayan ekonomik aktivitenin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131. Mart enflasyonu %2,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bunda enerji fiyatlar\u0131 etkili. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n \u015fubat perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 %0,2 art\u0131\u015fla zay\u0131f kald\u0131; 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011findeki daralma sonras\u0131 ekonomide ivme kayb\u0131 netle\u015fti. Bu tablo, BoC\u2019nin politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine gitmeden \u00f6nce daha fazla veri beklemesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Belirleyici de\u011fi\u015fken enerji fiyatlar\u0131. WTI ham petrol (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken, bu seviye 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcndeki 82 dolar ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u00fczerinde. Ba\u015fkan Macklem, bu k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 (ge\u00e7ici y\u00fckseli\u015f) g\u00f6rmezden gelmeye daha yatk\u0131n oldu\u011funu, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde so\u011fuyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtti. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
BoC\u2019nin \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d \u00e7izgisi, USD\/CAD\u2019de y\u00f6n\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc verece\u011fi karara b\u0131rak\u0131yor. USD\/CAD\u2019de son e\u011filim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bearish \u2013 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n). 1,3700\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015fler, Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinin s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
1,3700 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 beklendi\u011fi i\u00e7in, t\u00fcrev (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemi yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan pratik bir se\u00e7enek, bu seviye ve \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan USD\/CAD al\u0131m opsiyonu (call \u2013 belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek olabilir. Bu strateji, paritenin d\u00fc\u015fmesi ya da yatay kalmas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar; BoC\u2019nin sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin s\u00fcrece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle uyumludur. Toplant\u0131lar nedeniyle oynakl\u0131k (volatility \u2013 fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) artabilir, ancak mevcut a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kanal\u0131n korunmas\u0131 beklenir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler BoC\u2019de: ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015foku enflasyonu %2,4\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131rken b\u00fcy\u00fcme zay\u0131f. Bankan\u0131n faizi %2,25\u2019te tutup bekle-g\u00f6r s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi, USD\/CAD\u2019de 1,3700 direncini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45745","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45745"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45745\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45745"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45745"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45745"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}