Hindistan\u2019\u0131n 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi, Brent petrol 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken ve piyasalar daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlarken yeniden %7 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131yor. Gecelik Endeksli Swap (OIS: faizin, gecelik g\u00f6sterge \u00fczerinden de\u011fi\u015fken \u015fekilde belirlendi\u011fi swap s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) piyasas\u0131nda y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fti; 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00f6sterge, ge\u00e7en y\u0131lda yap\u0131lan faiz indirimlerinin neredeyse geri al\u0131nabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Reel ekonomi verileri (ger\u00e7ek \u00fcretim ve talebi g\u00f6steren veriler) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Sanayi \u00fcretimi ve Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi (PMI: \u015firketlerin yeni sipari\u015f, \u00fcretim ve istihdam gibi kalemlerle ekonomik faaliyeti \u00f6l\u00e7en anket endeksi) tedarik \u015foklar\u0131na ra\u011fmen dayan\u0131kl\u0131 seyrediyor. Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBI), ikinci tur etkiler (ilk fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fccret ve di\u011fer fiyatlara yay\u0131lmas\u0131) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131r ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) kontrol alt\u0131nda tutulursa ge\u00e7ici fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelebilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Hindistan Meteoroloji Dairesi, bu yaz ya\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131n zay\u0131f kalabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu durum tah\u0131l d\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u0131da enflasyonunu art\u0131rabilir. Hindistan rupisi, net a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon (bankalar\u0131n\/kurumlar\u0131n d\u00f6vizde a\u00e7\u0131k-kapal\u0131 risk pozisyonu) de\u011fi\u015fimlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi ve 94 orta seviyelerine do\u011fru kademeli de\u011fer kayb\u0131 e\u011filimine d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Kur ayr\u0131ca portf\u00f6y ak\u0131mlar\u0131na (yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n hisse ve tahvil al\u0131m-sat\u0131mlar\u0131) ili\u015fkin zay\u0131f beklentiler ve kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6nde m\u00fcdahale al\u0131mlar\u0131yla (merkez bankas\u0131 veya kamu taraf\u0131n\u0131n kurdaki hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 al\u0131m emirleri) bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. ABD\u2013\u0130ran geriliminde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm i\u015faretleri netle\u015fene kadar, INR varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n oynakl\u0131\u011fa ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Hindistan 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %7,35 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; bu, enflasyon endi\u015felerinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 88 dolara gerilese de, bu seviye h\u00e2l\u00e2 i\u00e7 fiyatlar ve ithalat maliyetleri \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratacak kadar y\u00fcksek. Bu tablo, faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (gelecekte belli bir faiz seviyesine y\u00f6nelik al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131lan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) pozisyonlar\u0131n faizlerde y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u00fcrmesi ihtimaline g\u00f6re y\u00f6netilmesi gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
OIS piyasas\u0131, politika faizi (repo faizi: bankalar\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131ndan k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7land\u0131\u011f\u0131 temel oran) %6,75 olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen RBI\u2019dan ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Mart ay\u0131 man\u015fet enflasyonu %5,1 ile RBI\u2019n\u0131n %4 hedefinin belirgin \u00fczerinde; bu da merkeze gev\u015feme i\u00e7in az alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Bu nedenle swap yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019nun (faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 alan kurul) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki toplant\u0131larda \u015fahin bir duru\u015f (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rmaya yatk\u0131n tutum) sergilemesini beklemesi gerekir.<\/p>\n
Daha s\u0131k\u0131 politikan\u0131n temel dayana\u011f\u0131, reel ekonomideki beklenmedik g\u00fc\u00e7. Mart ay\u0131na ait imalat PMI verisi 58,5 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geldi; bu, ekonominin daha y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini (kredi faizleri) belirgin bir yava\u015flama olmadan ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k, piyasan\u0131n RBI\u2019dan yak\u0131n vadede b\u00fcy\u00fcme gerek\u00e7eli g\u00fcvercin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f (faiz indirimine yakla\u015fan daha gev\u015fek tutum) beklememesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz geli\u015fme: Hindistan 10 y\u0131ll\u0131klar yeniden %7\u2019ye ko\u015fuyor. Brent ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veriler s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 beslerken OIS faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Muson ve rupi bask\u0131s\u0131 enflasyon riskini canl\u0131 tutuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45743","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45743","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45743"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45743\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45743"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45743"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45743"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}