ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ikinci g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckseldi ve 99,00 civar\u0131nda iki haftan\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n kald\u0131. Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi temkinli i\u015flemler ve ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecindeki t\u0131kanma dolara destek verdi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, ABD faizlerinin \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc sabit tutulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda da de\u011fi\u015fmeyece\u011fini tamamen fiyatl\u0131yor. Komitenin (Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 veren kurulu) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131, kar\u015f\u0131 oy \u00e7\u0131kma ihtimalinin bulundu\u011fu belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n muhtemelen son Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131na ba\u015fkanl\u0131k etmesi bekleniyor. Powell\u2019\u0131n Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00fcyesi (Governor) olarak g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi 2028\u2019e kadar s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Donald Trump ise Powell\u2019\u0131n kurumdan ayr\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi.<\/p>\n
Powell, Fed\u2019in ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n tehlikeye girdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrse Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00fcyesi olarak kalabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma da \u00e7\u0131kmazda. Haberlere g\u00f6re Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n son teklifini n\u00fckleer konuyu ele almad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in be\u011fenmedi.<\/p>\n
Wall Street Journal, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Trump\u2019\u0131n dan\u0131\u015fmanlar\u0131na \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik uzun s\u00fcreli bir ablukaya haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapmalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi\u011fini aktard\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k iki ayd\u0131r kapal\u0131; bu durum petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 sava\u015f \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %50 yukar\u0131da tutuyor ve risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
O d\u00f6nem g\u00f6r\u00fclen a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f azal\u0131nca, oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131) bir\u00e7ok varl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131nda belirgin \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. EUR\/USD gibi ana d\u00f6viz paritelerinde \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen hareket) 2025 sonundaki zirvelerden geriledi. Bu durum, \u201copsiyon primi satmay\u0131\u201d (opsiyon yazarak prim geliri elde etmeyi) daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: ABD hisse piyasas\u0131nda beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) kriz d\u00f6neminde 25\u2019in \u00fczerindeyken \u015fimdi 15 civar\u0131nda. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n iki ay kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u00f6r\u00fckledi\u011fi stagflasyon (y\u00fcksek enflasyonla birlikte zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme) endi\u015feleri piyasa anlat\u0131s\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 neredeyse 120 dolara kadar s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015ft\u0131; ancak 2026 ba\u015f\u0131nda sa\u011flanan diplomatik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmle deniz yolu h\u0131zla yeniden a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131. Bu sabah itibar\u0131yla WTI ham petrol (ABD referans ham petrol\u00fc) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar civar\u0131nda sakin seyrediyor; bu da arz\u0131n yeterli oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki bu istikrar, petrol t\u00fcrevlerinde (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi ara\u00e7lar) sert fiyat hareketlerinin \u015fimdilik geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki %50\u2019lik y\u00fckseli\u015fin etkisi, daha uzun vadeli opsiyonlarda bir miktar primi koruyor; bu primlerin sat\u0131lmas\u0131 f\u0131rsat olabilir. OPEC+ (OPEC ve ortak \u00fcretici \u00fclkeler grubu) son toplant\u0131s\u0131nda \u00fcretim kotalar\u0131n\u0131 (\u00fcretim s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131) korudu\u011fu i\u00e7in petrol\u00fcn \u201cbant i\u00e7inde\u201d (belirli bir aral\u0131kta) kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde \u201ciron condor\u201d gibi stratejileri (fiyat\u0131n belirli bir aral\u0131kta kalmas\u0131na oynayan, farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan opsiyon al\u0131p satmaya dayal\u0131 yap\u0131) destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik risk primi (belirsizlik nedeniyle fiyatlara eklenen risk pay\u0131) ortadan kalkarken enflasyon da beklenenden h\u0131zl\u0131 so\u011fuyor. 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) verisinin %2,9 gelmesi bunu g\u00f6steriyor. Odak art\u0131k tamamen Fed\u2019in izleyece\u011fi yola kayd\u0131. Piyasa, y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az bir faiz indirimi daha fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu, Powell\u2019\u0131n son toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda fiyatlanan \u201cfaiz sabit\u201d beklentisine g\u00f6re belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n) de\u011fi\u015fime, faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri (faize dayal\u0131 vadeli kontratlar) ve k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyonlarla pozisyon alabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar 99\u2019a yak\u0131n iki haftan\u0131n zirvesinde: Fed \u00f6ncesi temkin, ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7\u0131kmaz\u0131 destekliyor. VIX 15\u2019e gerilerken opsiyon primi sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; petrol 85$. Enflasyon so\u011fuyor, indirim beklentisi art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45740","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45740"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45740\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}