WTI \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnde de y\u00fckseldi; \u00c7ar\u015famba Asya i\u015flemlerinde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 96,90 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin t\u0131kanmas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n fiilen kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131yla arz (piyasaya sunulan petrol miktar\u0131) endi\u015feleri artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, m\u00fczakereler s\u00fcrerken \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ABD deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bu kapanma, k\u00fcresel petrol sevkiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini durdurdu.<\/p>\n
ABD, \u0130ran \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; Tahran\u2019la ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u00c7inli rafinerilere (ham petrol\u00fc benzin\/dizel gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlere \u00e7eviren tesisler) olas\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar g\u00fcndeme geldi. Ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den ge\u00e7i\u015f i\u00e7in \u201cge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti\u201d \u00f6deyen \u00fclkelere kar\u015f\u0131 ad\u0131mlar da de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n
Reuters, BAE\u2019nin 1 May\u0131s\u2019ta OPEC\u2019ten (Petrol \u0130hra\u00e7 Eden \u00dclkeler \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc) ayr\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi. Haberde bu ad\u0131m, \u0130ran krizi ve K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fmayla ili\u015fkilendirildi.<\/p>\n
ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent, Kharg Adas\u0131\u2019ndaki depolaman\u0131n (ham petrol stok kapasitesi) neredeyse dolu oldu\u011funu ve bunun \u0130ran\u2019a g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 170 milyon dolar gelir kayb\u0131 yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Hazine\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201cg\u00f6lge tanker filosunun\u201d (yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 a\u015fmak i\u00e7in kimlik\/konum bilgilerini gizleyerek yap\u0131lan ta\u015f\u0131ma a\u011f\u0131) b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131na yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u0130ran petrol\u00fc alanlar\u0131n ABD bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemine eri\u015fiminin kesilebilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol (WTI) 97 dolara yakla\u015f\u0131rken petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadede y\u00f6n yukar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n fiili kapanmas\u0131, ge\u00e7ici olarak g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varili, yani k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n %20\u2019sini piyasadan \u00e7ekti. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck aksama, fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve BAE\u2019nin OPEC\u2019ten ayr\u0131lma takvimi, piyasada sert dalgalanma (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta oynamas\u0131) riskini y\u00fckseltiyor. CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (OVX: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, beklenen fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren endeks) 2022\u2019deki arz \u015fokuna benzer \u015fekilde \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelerde kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Haziran ve Temmuz 2026 vadeli WTI ve Brent vadeli i\u015flemleri (belli bir tarihte alma-satma fiyat\u0131n\u0131 bug\u00fcnden belirleyen s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanma ama\u00e7l\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131ca stratejiler aras\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak jeopolitik arz \u015foklar\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131r. 2022\u2019de Brent 90 dolardan 120 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine bir aydan k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Mevcut H\u00fcrm\u00fcz durumu fiziki arz\u0131 daha do\u011frudan etkiledi\u011fi i\u00e7in, ikinci \u00e7eyrek bitmeden 120 dolar seviyesinin yeniden test edilmesi olas\u0131l\u0131k d\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
Brent ile WTI aras\u0131ndaki fiyat fark\u0131n\u0131n (spread: iki g\u00f6sterge fiyat aras\u0131ndaki fark) belirgin \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 da bekleniyor. Kriz Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 petrol\u00fc etkiliyor; bu petrol genelde Brent\u2019e g\u00f6re fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Brent taraf\u0131 daha hassas. BAE\u2019nin 1 May\u0131s\u2019ta OPEC\u2019ten resmen ayr\u0131lmas\u0131 da izlenmesi gereken \u00f6nemli bir tarih; piyasalara ek belirsizlik ve y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisi getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015f krizlerden farkl\u0131 olarak, devlet m\u00fcdahalesi se\u00e7enekleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. ABD Stratejik Petrol Rezervi (SPR: acil durumlar i\u00e7in tutulan devlet petrol stoku) yakla\u015f\u0131k 365 milyon varil d\u00fczeyinde ve 40 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n. Bu, uzun s\u00fcren bir kesintinin etkisini azaltma kapasitesini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tampon ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6lge tanker a\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131, arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeyebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde yeni ralli mi? WTI 97 dolara dayand\u0131; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn fiili kapanmas\u0131 k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n %20\u2019sini kesti. ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar ve BAE\u2019nin OPEC \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 itiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45714","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45714","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45714"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45714\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45714"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45714"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45714"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}