ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Bloomberg\u2019in sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc haberine g\u00f6re, iki ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bitirmeyi hedefleyen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019den H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Trump, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Truth Social\u2019daki payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131nda, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n y\u00f6netim sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken petrol ve gaz sevkiyat hatt\u0131n\u0131n \u201cm\u00fcmk\u00fcn olan en k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede\u201d a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
CNN, arabuluculuk s\u00fcrecine yak\u0131n kaynaklara dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde, Pakistan\u2019daki arabulucular\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmeye y\u00f6nelik revize edilmi\u015f (g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f) bir teklifi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde sunmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yaz\u0131n\u0131n haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada, Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol (WTI) g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %2,15 y\u00fckseli\u015fle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 97,00 dolard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Gerilimi azaltmaya y\u00f6nelik s\u00f6ylemlere ra\u011fmen petrol\u00fcn 97 dolar civar\u0131nda tutunmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme g\u00fcvenmedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu gerginlik, z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Cboe Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX) 55 seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyrediyor; bu seviye belirsizli\u011fin belirgin oldu\u011funa i\u015faret eder. Bu ortamda opsiyon primi satmak (opsiyon satarak pe\u015fin prim geliri elde etmek) cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u00e7\u00f6kmesi halinde risk y\u00fcksektir.<\/p>\n
Diplomasinin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla (call: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine y\u00f6nelik opsiyon) pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak bir se\u00e7enek olmaya devam ediyor. Fiziki piyasa, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki abluka nedeniyle h\u00e2l\u00e2 ciddi \u015fekilde s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k; bu durum g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varillik ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 aksat\u0131yor. Pakistan\u2019daki arabuluculuk s\u00fcrecinden gelecek olumsuz bir haber, fiyatlar\u0131 kolayca yeniden 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, g\u00fcvenilir bir bar\u0131\u015f \u00f6nerisi ortaya \u00e7\u0131karsa, \u015fu anda petrol fiyat\u0131na eklenen y\u00fcksek \u201csava\u015f primi\u201d (jeopolitik risk nedeniyle olu\u015fan ek fiyat) h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde silinebilir. Bu da fiyat\u0131n sert bi\u00e7imde 80 dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmesini tetikleyebilir; \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nceki bant buydu. Bu senaryoya oynayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazanmak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik opsiyon) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2025\u2019te K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019deki aksamalarda ya\u015fanan oynakl\u0131\u011fa benziyor; fiyat hareketini man\u015fet riskleri (haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ani fiyat etkisi) belirlemi\u015fti. Sonucun \u201cya hep ya hi\u00e7\u201d olmas\u0131 nedeniyle (iki u\u00e7lu senaryo), opsiyon spread\u2019leri kullanmak riski tan\u0131mlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur. \u00d6rne\u011fin ay\u0131 put spread\u2019i (bear put spread: daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren strateji), fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynarken \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma beklenmedik \u015fekilde t\u0131rman\u0131rsa olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kritik e\u015fik: Trump, \u0130ran\u2019dan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi; arabulucular g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f teklif bekliyor. WTI 97 dolarda, OVX 55. \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm yoksa \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131; bar\u0131\u015fta 80\u2019lere put stratejileri.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45711","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45711","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45711"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45711\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45711"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45711"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45711"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}