GBP\/USD Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,12 gerileyerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3520\u2019ye indi ve 1,3500 civar\u0131ndaki yatay bantta kald\u0131. G\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 1,3465 ile 1,3580 aras\u0131nda 115 pip (kurda en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131) aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hareket etti; erken saatlerdeki y\u00fckseli\u015fler zay\u0131flad\u0131, g\u00fcn sonunda dipten tepki al\u0131m\u0131 geldi.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6zler Per\u015fembe 11:00 UTC\u2019deki \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) karar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. Politika faizi olan Bank Rate\u2019in %3,75\u2019te kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (MPC) oylamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nceki 9-0-0 \u201cfaiz sabit\u201d sonucuna k\u0131yasla 8-1-0 (1 \u00fcye farkl\u0131 oy) olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ard\u0131ndan Para Politikas\u0131 Raporu (ekonomi ve enflasyon tahminlerini i\u00e7eren rapor) ve 11:30 UTC\u2019de bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 yap\u0131lacak.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) riskleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. MPC \u00fcyesi Pill\u2019in Cuma 11:15 UTC\u2019de konu\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. ABD\u2019de ise \u00c7ar\u015famba 18:00 UTC\u2019deki Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) karar\u0131 izlenecek; faizin %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Powell\u2019\u0131n enflasyon konusundaki tonu yak\u0131ndan takip edilecek.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda (k\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) olas\u0131 petrol ak\u0131\u015f kesintisinin enflasyonu k\u0131sa vadeden daha uzun s\u00fcre etkileyip etkilemeyece\u011fini de\u011ferlendiriyor; Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD ISM \u0130malat PMI verisi de gelecek. ISM \u0130malat PMI, imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde geni\u015fleme\/daralmay\u0131 g\u00f6steren bir anket g\u00f6stergesidir. Grafiklerde fiyat 1,3519 civar\u0131nda ve 1,3538 direncinin alt\u0131nda. G\u00fcnl\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde destek 1,3518; 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama; son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren ortalama) 1,3440\u2019ta, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 1,3387\u2019de. Stokastik RSI (momentumu \u00f6l\u00e7en teknik g\u00f6sterge) 65 civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD paritesi \u015fu anda 1,3500 \u00e7evresinde s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu dar bant hareketi, piyasan\u0131n BoE veya Fed\u2019den net bir sinyal bekledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnler) haber sonras\u0131 bu banttan sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lma ihtimaline haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta iki merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckselmesi olas\u0131; bu da opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Basit bir y\u00f6ntem \u201cstraddle\u201d almakt\u0131r: Ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 ve vadeyle hem call (al\u0131m opsiyonu) hem put (sat\u0131m opsiyonu) almak. Bu pozisyon, GBP\/USD\u2019nin hangi y\u00f6ne olursa olsun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket etmesi halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir; jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin enflasyonu etkilemesi bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
BoE\u2019de beklenen 8-1\u2019lik oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131, y\u00fckselen enflasyon kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki ikilemi g\u00f6steriyor. Son veriler, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (CPI, t\u00fcketici sepetindeki fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7er) enflasyonunun Mart 2026\u2019da beklenmedik \u015fekilde %3,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi enerji fiyat \u015fokunun bunu yukar\u0131 itti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Enflasyonun %2 hedefinin belirgin \u00fczerindeki seyri, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklenmese bile BoE \u00fczerinde \u201cgev\u015fek\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeme bask\u0131s\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta Fed, ABD \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019yi (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 enflasyonu; Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi fiyat g\u00f6stergesi) izliyor; bu oran %2,9 ile hedefin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte 1979 gibi jeopolitik petrol \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Fed\u2019i sert ad\u0131mlara zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Powell, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 riskin ge\u00e7ici olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima ederse, bu dolar i\u00e7in daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 e\u011filimi) bir \u00e7izgi sinyali olur.<\/p>\n
\u015eahin bir Fed ve BoE\u2019de daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (daha gev\u015fek politika e\u011filimi) bir ayr\u0131\u015fma, GBP\/USD\u2019yi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Bu senaryoda 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olan 1,3440\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. B\u00f6ylece 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama olan 1,3387\u2019ye do\u011fru olas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmadan yararlanma hedeflenir.<\/p>\n
Tersine, Fed petrol \u015fokunu ge\u00e7ici g\u00f6r\u00fcr ve BoE enflasyon konusunda daha birlik mesaj\u0131 verirse, sterlin sert y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6sterebilir. Bu olas\u0131l\u0131kta 1,3580\u2019deki son zirvenin \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar. G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 teknik destek, daha \u00f6nce geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m\u0131n (dipten al\u0131m) \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 alan\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
GBP\/USD 1,3500 band\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131; kritik haftada BoE ve Fed kararlar\u0131 piyasay\u0131 kilitliyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 enerji enflasyonu, oy ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla sert k\u0131r\u0131lma riski b\u00fcy\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45708","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45708","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45708"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45708\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45708"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45708"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45708"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}