Spot alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc %1,85 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.596 dolarda kapand\u0131; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.555 dolara kadar geriledi. Son alt\u0131 seanstan d\u00f6rd\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapatt\u0131 ve fiyat\u0131n daha \u00f6nce korudu\u011fu 4.650 dolar \u00fczeri seviye k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) karar\u0131 \u00e7ar\u015famba 18:00 UTC\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Politika faizinin %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD\u2019de \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan veriler: 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi), %0,5\u2019ten sonra y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (\u00e7eyreklik verinin y\u0131la \u00e7evrilmi\u015f h\u00e2li) %2,3 tahmin ediliyor; mart \u00c7ekirdek PCE (Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi, g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 enflasyonu) ise y\u0131ll\u0131k %3\u2019ten %3,2\u2019ye bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ISM imalat PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50 \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi g\u00f6sterir) verisi gelecek. \u201c\u00d6denen fiyatlar\u201d alt endeksinin 80\u2019e yak\u0131n beklenmesi, maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret eder. 15 dakikal\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde fiyat 4.595,84 dolar; g\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 4.697,98 dolar. Stokastik RSI (a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgelerini g\u00f6steren k\u0131sa vadeli momentum g\u00f6stergesi) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte fiyat, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama; son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verir) olan yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.764,90 dolar ile 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 4.325,77 dolar aras\u0131nda. Stokastik RSI 32 civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 alt\u0131n 4.600 dolar seviyesini test ediyor. Ana belirsizlik, Fed\u2019in kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyona nas\u0131l yakla\u015faca\u011f\u0131. \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi son enerji fiyat \u015foku da bu tabloyu karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da karar sonras\u0131 iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareket beklendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 savunan) bir tonla, enerji maliyetlerine ra\u011fmen enflasyonu \u00f6nceliklendirmesi dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir ve alt\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Bu senaryoda sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyon) alma veya vadeli i\u015flemlerde (futures; ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) k\u0131sa pozisyon (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcr. Hedef, d\u00fcnk\u00fc dip olan 4.555 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m. Sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde ana destek 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama olan 4.325 dolar civar\u0131.<\/p>\n
Tersine, Fed sab\u0131rl\u0131 bir duru\u015f sergiler ve enerji kaynakl\u0131 yava\u015flama riskini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rsa alt\u0131n nefes alabilir. Bu durumda al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyon) veya vadeli i\u015flemlerde uzun pozisyon (y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar. \u0130lk g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama; \u015fu an 4.765 dolar civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Mevcut enerji \u015foku + kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon birle\u015fimi, 1970\u2019lerdeki stagflasyonu (y\u00fcksek enflasyonla birlikte zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme) and\u0131r\u0131yor. O d\u00f6nem dalgal\u0131 olsa da alt\u0131n, de\u011fer saklama arac\u0131 (al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc koruma ama\u00e7l\u0131 varl\u0131k) olarak uzun vadede iyi performans g\u00f6stermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 odak per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH ve \u00c7ekirdek PCE verilerine kayacak. Beklentiden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veriler, Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d \u00e7izgisini destekleyebilir ve hafta sonuna kadar alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. B\u00fcy\u00fcmede yava\u015flama veya enflasyonda belirgin so\u011fuma sinyali ise maden i\u00e7in yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda alarm: XAU\/USD 4.650 alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131, 4.600 testte. Fed karar\u0131 ve GSYH-PCE verileri y\u00f6n\u00fc belirleyecek. \u015eahin ton d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, sab\u0131r toparlanma. Oynakl\u0131k alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n zirvesinde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45707","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45707","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45707"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45707\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45707"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45707"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45707"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}