USD\/JPY Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 80 piplik (kurda 0,80 yen\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen) bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve Asya\u2019n\u0131n erken saatlerinde 158,96\u2019y\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten ve New York\u2019ta ge\u00e7 saatlerde 159,79\u2019a y\u00fckseldikten sonra 159,62 civar\u0131nda kapand\u0131. Parite Mart ortas\u0131ndan bu yana genel olarak yatay seyrediyor; 160,00 seviyesi de \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r olarak tekrar tekrar test edilmesine ra\u011fmen a\u015f\u0131lam\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Japonya taraf\u0131nda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 48 saatte veri takvimi yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor. Mart Perakende Ticaret \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda (ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re) %0,8 art\u0131\u015f bekleniyor (\u00f6nceki: %-0,2). Tokyo T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; taze g\u0131da hari\u00e7 (daha oynak olan taze g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u0131\u015flayan) \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcn y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,8 olmas\u0131 bekleniyor (\u00f6nceki: %1,7). Bu arada iki y\u0131ll\u0131k Japon devlet tahvili getirileri uzun y\u0131llar\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) karar\u0131 \u00c7ar\u015famba 18:00 UTC\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Politika faizi olan federal fon oran\u0131n\u0131n (bankalar\u0131n gecelik bor\u00e7 verme faizi) %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutulmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran gerilimi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda olas\u0131 petrol arz aksamalar\u0131 izleniyor. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD 1\u00c7 GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la) ve \u00c7ekirdek PCE Fiyat Endeksi (Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi, g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) \u00f6ncesi bu ba\u015fl\u0131klar da fiyatlamalar\u0131 etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n
15 dakikal\u0131k grafikte parite 159,62\u2019de ve g\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 olan 159,36\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Stokastik RSI (momentumu\/ivmeyi \u00f6l\u00e7en teknik g\u00f6sterge) 50\u2019lerin ortas\u0131nda. G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte fiyat 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama; son g\u00fcnlere daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verir) 158,44 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n 155,10 \u00fczerinde; Stokastik RSI yine 50\u2019lerin ortas\u0131na yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY 170,00\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00f6nelirken tan\u0131d\u0131k bir tablo olu\u015fuyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 2025\u2019te paritenin 160,00 alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6neme benziyor. Temel sorun de\u011fi\u015fmedi: ABD ve Japonya faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark yenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131nda ana etken olmaya devam ediyor. Fed\u2019in politika faizi %4,50\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rken Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 faizi ancak %0,10\u2019a \u00e7\u0131karabildi.<\/p>\n
160,00 nas\u0131l kritik bir e\u015fik olduysa, Japon yetkililerden gelen sert s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar 170,00\u2019in yeni kritik seviye oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. 2022\u2019de parite 150\u2019yi a\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra resmi m\u00fcdahaleyle g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 160 k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra ya\u015fanan y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k (fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zla ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) unutulmamal\u0131. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, \u201c\u00e7ok uzakta\u201d kalan al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyattan \u00e7ok yukar\u0131da olan call; ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme ihtimali d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck) alman\u0131n \u00e7ok riskli oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor; ani bir resmi hamle bu opsiyonlar\u0131 bir gecede de\u011fersiz b\u0131rakabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ekonomik veriler bir sonraki hareket i\u00e7in belirleyici olacak. ABD\u2019de son \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonunun %2,8 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 kalmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede yeni faiz indirimi sinyali vermesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; bu da dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Japonya\u2019da enflasyon %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalsa da BOJ\u2019un temkinli duru\u015fu yeni zay\u0131f b\u0131rakarak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc daha olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130stikrarl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi ile ani m\u00fcdahale riski aras\u0131ndaki bu gerilim, opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan gelecekte beklenen dalgalanma) yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Bu ortam, k\u0131sa vadeli \u201cstrangle\u201d satmay\u0131 cazip k\u0131labilir; bu stratejide yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu satar ve kur 170,00 alt\u0131ndaki bir bantta kal\u0131rsa prim gelirinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir. Ancak kurun iki y\u00f6nde de sert k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde risk b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc beklentiyi korurken m\u00fcdahale riskini y\u00f6netmek isteyenler i\u00e7in opsiyon spread\u2019leri (iki opsiyonun birlikte kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131, riskin s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 yap\u0131) daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131md\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201cbull call spread\u201d (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu satma) kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015ften kazan\u00e7 imk\u00e2n\u0131 verirken, olas\u0131 bir resmi m\u00fcdahalede maksimum zarar\u0131 ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Bu sayede hesap eritmeye yol a\u00e7abilecek bir harekete a\u00e7\u0131k kalmadan pozisyonda kalmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olur.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY 160\u2019\u0131 k\u0131ram\u0131yor: g\u00f6zler Fed, ABD GSYH\/PCE ve Japon perakende-Tokyo T\u00dcFE\u2019de. Faiz fark\u0131 yen bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, 170 uyar\u0131lar\u0131 m\u00fcdahale riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor; opsiyonda oynakl\u0131k y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45705","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45705","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45705"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45705\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45705"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45705"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45705"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}