\u00c7in\u2019in reel GSYH\u2019si 2026\u2019n\u0131n 1. \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5,0\u2019e y\u00fckseldi (2025 4. \u00e7eyre\u011finde %4,5). Art\u0131\u015fta g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u0131\u015f talep etkili olurken, i\u00e7 talepte toparlanma d\u00fczensiz kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bir \u201cGSYH Nowcast\u201d (mevcut verilerle anl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini) modeli, 2026\u2019n\u0131n 2. \u00e7eyre\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi %4,5 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Tahmin; sanayi faaliyetinde, ihracatta ve perakende sat\u0131\u015flarda zay\u0131flamay\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 (makine-te\u00e7hizat, bina ve altyap\u0131 gibi uzun vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131) zay\u0131f kald\u0131. \u0130\u00e7 ko\u015fullar, gayrimenkul sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki s\u00fcren bask\u0131 ve kapasite azaltma (arz fazlas\u0131 olan sekt\u00f6rlerde \u00fcretim kapasitesini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme) \u00e7abalar\u0131ndan da olumsuz etkilendi.<\/p>\n
GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 2026\u2019da %4,5\u2019e gerilemesi bekleniyor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler aras\u0131nda Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler, daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve tedarik zinciri aksakl\u0131klar\u0131 yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Makale, bir Yapay Zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla haz\u0131rlan\u0131p bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan incelendi\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in ekonomisi y\u0131la 1. \u00e7eyrekte %5,0 reel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ba\u015flad\u0131. Ancak Nowcast modeli 2. \u00e7eyrekte %4,5\u2019e yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, man\u015fet b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131f alanlar\u0131 tam yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n yak\u0131nda daha g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Yava\u015flamay\u0131, \u00f6zellikle konut\/gayrimenkul sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki sorunlar ve zay\u0131f t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 gibi i\u00e7 dinamikler s\u00fcr\u00fckl\u00fcyor. Ulusal \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu verilerine g\u00f6re 70 \u015fehirde yeni konut fiyatlar\u0131 martta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,7 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu, bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en sert gerilemesi. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 i\u00e7 bask\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin sadece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracatla ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
D\u0131\u015f talepten gelen destek de zay\u0131fl\u0131yor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Mart d\u0131\u015f ticaret verilerinde ihracat\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k %7,5 daralmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekti ve \u00e7eyre\u011fin \u00f6nceki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini tersine \u00e7evirdi. Ayr\u0131ca nisan ay\u0131 Caixin \u0130malat PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50 \u00fczeri b\u00fcy\u00fcme, 50 alt\u0131 daralma) 50,8 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret ederek sanayi faaliyetinde ivme kayb\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemler (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi fiyat hareketine dayal\u0131 ara\u00e7lar) yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u00c7in ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 varl\u0131klarda olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin FXI gibi geni\u015f \u00c7in ETF\u2019lerinde put opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklentisiyle al\u0131nan sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu) almak veya Hang Seng Endeksi vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yararlanma) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Yava\u015flama riski artt\u0131k\u00e7a \u201cimplied volatility\u201dnin (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) y\u00fckselmesi olas\u0131d\u0131r; bu da oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejileri daha cazip hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Sanayi \u00fcretimindeki yava\u015flama, temel emtialarda talebi azaltabilir. Bu durum bak\u0131r ve demir cevheri gibi malzemelerde zay\u0131fl\u0131k riskine i\u015faret ederek ilgili vadeli piyasalarda k\u0131sa pozisyon f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 do\u011furabilir. D\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda ise ekonomik bask\u0131 \u00c7in para birimini zorlayabilir; offshore Yuan\/CNH (\u00c7in yuan\u0131n\u0131n ana kara d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki piyasada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren versiyonu) i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejiler de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
2015-2016 d\u00f6neminde benzer b\u00fcy\u00fcme kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n Yuan\u2019da s\u00fcrpriz de\u011fer kayb\u0131na ve k\u00fcresel piyasalarda sert sat\u0131\u015flara yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 unutulmamal\u0131. Ani politika m\u00fcdahaleleri riski s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in savunmac\u0131 ve esnek bir duru\u015f \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler de enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla y\u00fckselterek k\u00fcresel imalat g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u00c7in 1\u00c726\u2019da %5 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek s\u00fcrpriz yapt\u0131; ancak Nowcast 2\u00c7\u2019de %4,5\u2019e yava\u015flama sinyali veriyor. \u0130\u00e7 talep k\u0131r\u0131lgan, gayrimenkul bask\u0131l\u0131; ihracat ve sanayi ivme kaybediyor, riskler art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45697","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45697","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45697"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45697\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45697"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45697"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45697"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}