Standard Chartered stratejistleri Christopher Graham ve John Davies\u2019e g\u00f6re, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda **at\u0131l kapasitenin (slack: i\u015f bulman\u0131n zorla\u015fmas\u0131 ve bo\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131n azalmas\u0131)** artmas\u0131 ve i\u00e7 talebin zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131, **enflasyonda ikinci tur etkilerin** (ilk fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fccretlere ve ard\u0131ndan yeniden fiyatlara yans\u0131yarak enflasyonu kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131) riskini azaltabilir. Buna g\u00f6re, COVID sonras\u0131 d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasla \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n **\u00fccret pazarl\u0131k g\u00fcc\u00fc** ve \u015firketlerin **fiyatlama g\u00fcc\u00fc** (maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fc\u015fteriye yans\u0131tabilme) daha zay\u0131f.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 10 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinde; bordrolu istihdam ise son 18 ayda 120 bin ki\u015fi azald\u0131. Bu tablo, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n azalaca\u011f\u0131na ve \u015firketlerin artan maliyetleri fiyatlara aktarmas\u0131n\u0131n zorla\u015faca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, artan enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 telafi etmek i\u00e7in geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 **mali destek** (fiscal support: devletin b\u00fct\u00e7e \u00fczerinden destek vermesi) sa\u011flanma ihtimalinin 2022\u20132023\u2019e k\u0131yasla daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar. O d\u00f6nemde destek paketleri, ekonomik a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri azalt\u0131rken enflasyon \u015fokunu da daha uzun s\u00fcre canl\u0131 tutmu\u015f olabilir.<\/p>\n
Mevcut **makroekonomik** (genel ekonomi) ortam\u0131n 2022 ve 2023\u2019ten farkl\u0131 oldu\u011funu ekliyorlar. Enerji fiyat \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 \u201cge\u00e7ici\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcp politika tepkisini buna g\u00f6re s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutman\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fte \u00f6rnekleri oldu\u011funu belirtiyorlar.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda at\u0131l kapasite belirginle\u015firken, enflasyonun \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen) olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirmek gerekiyor. Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi (ONS) verilerine g\u00f6re a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 2021\u2019den bu yana ilk kez 900 binin alt\u0131na inerken bordrolar dura\u011fan. Bu ortam, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek \u00fccret talep etme g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc azalt\u0131yor ve \u015firketlerin maliyetleri fiyatlara yans\u0131tmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; bu da enflasyonun beklenenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 so\u011fuyabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f i\u00e7 talep g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde, faizlere duyarl\u0131 pozisyonlar g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmeli. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacmi son \u00e7eyrekte yaln\u0131zca %0,2 artt\u0131; bu da t\u00fcketicinin temkinli oldu\u011funu ve talep kaynakl\u0131 bir enflasyon s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 beslemesinin zor oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) daha **g\u00fcvercin** (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz e\u011filimli) olabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor ve **k\u0131sa vadeli faiz t\u00fcrevlerinde** (faiz oran\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
2022 ve 2023\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir devlet deste\u011finin tekrar\u0131n\u0131 beklememek gerekir. O d\u00f6nemde **Energy Price Guarantee** gibi mali programlar ekonomik darbeyi yumu\u015fatt\u0131, ancak enflasyon \u015fokunu da uzatt\u0131. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de kamu net borcu \u015fu anda GSYH\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %98\u2019i seviyesinde; bu nedenle bu kez benzer \u00f6l\u00e7ekte geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 bir **mali geni\u015fleme** (fiscal stimulus: b\u00fct\u00e7e harcamalar\u0131\/vergiler yoluyla ekonomiyi canland\u0131rma) i\u00e7in istek ve kapasite s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu da orta vadede \u0130ngiltere faizlerinin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere inmesine g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. **SONIA vadeli i\u015flem e\u011frisi** (sterlin gecelik faizine dayal\u0131 vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerin faiz beklentisini g\u00f6steren yap\u0131) bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde ve 2027\u2019ye kadar olas\u0131 faiz indirimlerini tam fiyatlam\u0131yor olabilir. **2 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz swap\u0131nda sabit faiz alma** (interest rate swap: de\u011fi\u015fken faizi \u00f6deyip sabit faizi alma; faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisiyle yap\u0131lan i\u015flem) taraf\u0131nda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; yani BoE\u2019nin piyasadaki fiyatlamadan daha erken veya daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
BoE i\u00e7in bu g\u00fcvercin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sterlin \u00fczerinde de bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 bir ABD ekonomisiyle u\u011fra\u015fan Fed ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n dolar\u0131 desteklemesi muhtemel. Bu nedenle yaz boyunca sterlinde olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in **GBP\/USD sat\u0131m opsiyonu** (put option: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizler, di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslere g\u00f6re geride kalan \u0130ngiltere hisseleri i\u00e7in destekleyici olabilir. Bundan yararlanmak i\u00e7in **FTSE 100 al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131** (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Daha destekleyici bir merkez bankas\u0131 duru\u015fu, \u015firketlerin bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck\u00e7e ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131 y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e h\u0131zl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0130ngiltere\u2019de i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 gev\u015fiyor: a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015fler dipte, bordrolar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Bu, \u00fccret-fiyat sarmal\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131p enflasyonu h\u0131zla so\u011futabilir. BoE daha g\u00fcvercin; SONIA tam fiyatlam\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45691","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45691","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45691"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45691\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45691"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45691"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45691"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}