{"id":45688,"date":"2026-04-29T00:52:50","date_gmt":"2026-04-29T00:52:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/fed-kararindan-once-yatirimcilar-pozisyon-degistiriyor-orta-dogu-gerilimi-dolari-baskilayarak-eur-usdde-toparlanmayi-destekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-04-29T00:52:50","modified_gmt":"2026-04-29T00:52:50","slug":"fed-kararindan-once-yatirimcilar-pozisyon-degistiriyor-orta-dogu-gerilimi-dolari-baskilayarak-eur-usdde-toparlanmayi-destekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fed-kararindan-once-yatirimcilar-pozisyon-degistiriyor-orta-dogu-gerilimi-dolari-baskilayarak-eur-usdde-toparlanmayi-destekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed karar\u0131ndan \u00f6nce yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar pozisyon de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor; Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi Dolar\u2019\u0131 bask\u0131layarak EUR\/USD\u2019de toparlanmay\u0131 destekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Euro, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ivme kaybetmesiyle Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc baz\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 geri ald\u0131. EUR\/USD, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 1,1677 dip seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 1,1707 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 98,88 zirvesinin ard\u0131ndan 98,66 civar\u0131nda seyretti ve g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,18 art\u0131da s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Dolar\u2019a destek, ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerinden geldi (tahvil getirisi: tahvilden beklenen faiz\/kazan\u00e7 oran\u0131).<\/p>\n

Federal Reserve G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Fed\u2019in faizleri %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Piyasalar, Fed\u2019in \u201cy\u00f6nlendirmesine\u201d (ileri d\u00f6n\u00fck mesajlar\u0131na) odaklan\u0131yor. Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon beklentilerini art\u0131r\u0131rken, fiyatlamalar iki faiz indirimi yerine \u201cfaizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131\u201d senaryosuna kay\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde piyasalar en az iki Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. ECB\u2019nin ise Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc faizi %2,00 seviyesinde sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Karar vericiler, enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131; ithal enerjiye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerindeki riskleriyle birlikte de\u011ferlendiriyor.<\/p>\n

ECB\u2019nin 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek Banka Kredi Anketi, farkl\u0131 vadelerde enflasyon beklentilerinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k beklenti Mart\u2019ta %4,0\u2019a (\u015eubat: %2,5), 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k beklenti %3,0\u2019a (\u015eubat: %2,5) \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k beklenti %2,4\u2019e (\u015eubat: %2,3) y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

CNN\u2019e g\u00f6re, ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sona erdirmeye y\u00f6nelik \u00e7abalar t\u0131kand\u0131; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki aksama s\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve petrol arz\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 kal\u0131yor (arz\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 olmas\u0131: piyasada petrol\u00fcn az bulunmas\u0131). \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde revize bir bar\u0131\u015f \u00f6nerisi sunmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Strateji ve Risk Pozisyonlamas\u0131<\/h3>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczde hem Fed hem de ECB toplant\u0131lar\u0131 var. Odak, karar vericilerin kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonu nas\u0131l ele alaca\u011f\u0131. En \u00f6nemli etken, ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itmesi. Bu tablo, d\u00f6viz ve faiz piyasalar\u0131nda sert dalgalanma riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Fed\u2019in \u201cfaizler uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalabilir\u201d mesaj\u0131 vermesi olas\u0131. Bu da ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekleyebilir. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri %4,5 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015fken, opsiyon stratejileri (opsiyon: belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan ekonomilere sahip para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 Dolar lehine kullan\u0131labilir. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u015flemcileri, Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flemleriyle (Fed\u2019in politika faizine dayal\u0131 vadeli kontrat) \u201c\u015fahin s\u00fcrpriz\u201d (beklenenden daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131) ihtimalini de fiyatlayabilir.<\/p>\n

Euro taraf\u0131nda denge daha zor: ECB, enflasyon ile y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye verece\u011fi zarar\u0131 tart\u0131yor. Bu y\u0131l iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklense de, 2022\u20132023 d\u00f6neminde oldu\u011fu gibi zay\u0131flayan ekonomide faiz art\u0131rma riski var. Bu nedenle EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1800 \u00fczerine y\u00fckseli\u015fleri, 1,1500 band\u0131na geri \u00e7ekilme beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olabilir; put opsiyonlar\u0131 (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n

Piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ana belirleyeni ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 riski petrol arz\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131yor. Brent vadeli i\u015flemleri varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken, arz \u015fokunun (arz\u0131n aniden d\u00fc\u015fmesi) yeni s\u0131\u00e7ramalara yol a\u00e7mas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 call opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) ile korunma d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin sonu\u00e7suz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 dalgalanmay\u0131 art\u0131rabilir; bu da hisse endeksi putlar\u0131 dahil farkl\u0131 varl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131nda \u201chedge\u201d (riskten korunma) ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed-ECB haftas\u0131, petrol \u015fokuyla piyasay\u0131 kilitledi: Dolar ivme kaybedince Euro toparlad\u0131. Ancak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski, \u015fahin Fed mesaj\u0131 ve y\u00fckselen enflasyon beklentileri sert volatiliteyi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45688","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45688","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45688"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45688\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45688"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45688"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45688"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}