USD\/JPY Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 159,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 159,00 alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131ktan sonra %0,07 y\u00fckseldi. Jeopolitik risk s\u00fcrerken ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talebin artmas\u0131yla parite toparland\u0131.<\/p>\n
BoJ politika faizini %0,75\u2019te tuttu. Oylama 6\u2019ya 3 sonu\u00e7land\u0131; \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcye faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. Banka enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) tahminlerini y\u00fckseltti ve \u201creel faiz\u201din (enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f faiz) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Yen ilk etapta g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Bu hareket, kurda sert dalgalanmalarda yetkililerin \u201cm\u00fcdahale\u201d edebilece\u011fine (piyasaya al\u0131m-sat\u0131mla do\u011frudan etki) dair resmi uyar\u0131mlarla desteklendi. Ancak kazan\u00e7lar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; enerji arz\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler, \u00f6zellikle de ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 bir ekonomi i\u00e7in H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki riskler nedeniyle.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi ve t\u0131kanan diplomasiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebiyle (risk art\u0131nca yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n dolara y\u00f6nelmesi) destek buldu. ABD\u2019de t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti; Conference Board T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni Endeksi Nisan\u2019da 92,8 oldu.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizi %3,5\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; bu beklenti ABD tahvil getirilerini (faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131) destekliyor. Yorumlarda ayr\u0131ca yen\u2019de \u201ck\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u201d yeniden artmas\u0131na (yene kar\u015f\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon), Japonya\u2019da \u201cstagflasyon\u201d riskinin (zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme + y\u00fcksek enflasyon) y\u00fckselmesine ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015flem hacmiyle bilinen Golden Week d\u00f6neminde m\u00fcdahale riskinin artmas\u0131na de\u011finildi.<\/p>\n
ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 i\u015flemin temel unsuru olmaya devam ediyor ve yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine yard\u0131m edecek h\u0131zda daralm\u0131yor. Fed %3,5\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kararl\u0131 duru\u015funu koruyor; \u201c\u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu\u201d (de\u011fi\u015fken kalemler olan g\u0131da ve enerjiyi d\u0131\u015flayan, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi fiyat g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,9 ile kal\u0131c\u0131 seyrediyor. Bu geni\u015f fark, ABD Dolar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 (elde tutmay\u0131) yene k\u0131yasla daha kazan\u00e7l\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019da ise merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n sert mesajlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen tablo k\u0131r\u0131lgan. Son \u00fclke geneli \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %2,7 seviyesinde, ancak bunun \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek enerji ithalat maliyetlerinden kaynaklan\u0131yor. Bu da stagflasyon riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Japon yetkililerden kur m\u00fcdahalesi ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6zellikle parite 160,00 kritik seviyesini test ederken dikkatli olunmas\u0131 gerekiyor. 2022 sonundaki sert ve ani m\u00fcdahaleler hat\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, hareketlerin \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert olabildi\u011fi; dakikalar i\u00e7inde 300\u2013500 pip (kurun en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yaratabildi\u011fi biliniyor. Japonya\u2019daki Golden Week tatili, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck likidite (piyasada yeterli al\u0131c\u0131-sat\u0131c\u0131 olmamas\u0131) nedeniyle bu riski art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlik ortam\u0131, oynakl\u0131\u011fa dayal\u0131 opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201cuzun straddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketten iki y\u00f6nde de yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen strateji) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha anlaml\u0131 hale gelebilir. \u201cZ\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) bir ayl\u0131k USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda %12\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da piyasadaki sert k\u0131r\u0131lma ya da h\u0131zl\u0131 geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f endi\u015fesini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, belirli bir y\u00f6n tahmini yerine, iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilecek pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00f6zler 160\u2019ta: USD\/JPY BoJ sonras\u0131 159,50\u2019ye toparland\u0131. BoJ faizi %0,75\u2019te tuttu, enflasyon riskini vurgulad\u0131. Jeopolitik dolar talebi, faiz fark\u0131 ve Golden Week likiditesi m\u00fcdahale\/oynakl\u0131k riskini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45687","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45687","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45687"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45687\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45687"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45687"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45687"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}