Alt\u0131n, yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.571 dolara gerileyerek neredeyse son bir ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,35 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu hareket, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) endi\u015felerinin s\u00fcrmesiyle geldi.<\/p>\n
ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinden iki ay ge\u00e7ti; ate\u015fkesin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtiliyor. CNN\u2019e g\u00f6re ikinci tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ilerleme kaydetmedi ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde revize edilmi\u015f (g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f) bir teklif sunmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, belirsizlik ortam\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam etti. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) 98,67 civar\u0131nda ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,20 art\u0131da. Dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, alt\u0131n\u0131 di\u011fer para birimleriyle sat\u0131n alanlar i\u00e7in maliyeti art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in talebi azaltabilir.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en arz\u0131n (piyasaya sunulan petrol miktar\u0131) \u00e7ift tarafl\u0131 abluka nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde aksad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. Piyasalar \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) karar\u0131na odakland\u0131. CME FedWatch arac\u0131 (piyasalar\u0131n faiz beklentisini vadeli i\u015flemler \u00fczerinden hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge) faizlerin sabit kalmas\u0131n\u0131n tamamen fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi\u2019nin 4 haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 40,25 binden 39,25 bine geriledi. Conference Board T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni Endeksi (t\u00fcketicilerin ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme dair alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) Nisan\u2019da 92,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; beklenti 89\u2019du. \u00d6nceki de\u011fer 91,8\u2019di (92,2\u2019ye revize edildi).<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde alt\u0131n, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (basit hareketli ortalama: son 100 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131) olan 4.749 dolar\u0131n ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n (son 50 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131) 4.854 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi: fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m durumunu g\u00f6steren momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 39 civar\u0131nda, MACD (hareketli ortalama yak\u0131nsama\/\u0131raksama: trend ve momentum g\u00f6stergesi) negatif. Destek 4.550 dolar civar\u0131nda; ard\u0131ndan 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (uzun vadeli ortalama fiyat) yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.263 dolarda.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019in bu d\u00f6neminde de, ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri t\u0131kanm\u0131\u015fken g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar alt\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) k\u0131r\u0131lgan tutmu\u015f ve dolar\u0131 desteklemi\u015fti. Bu tablo, alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda tutarak al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 zorlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu dinamik, 2025\u2019in ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir diplomatik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmle de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden petrol arz\u0131na dair endi\u015feler ge\u00e7ici olarak azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. B\u00f6ylece ABD Dolar\u0131 zirvelerinden geri \u00e7ekilmi\u015f ve alt\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru belirgin bir toparlanma g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Pek \u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131, Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n zirveyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Ancak tablo de\u011fi\u015fti. Mart 2026 \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (Core CPI: g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) %3,1 ile beklentilerin \u00fczerinde geldi; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini tersine \u00e7evirerek enflasyon endi\u015felerini yeniden art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu s\u00fcrpriz veri, olas\u0131 yeni d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazanmak i\u00e7in alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemleri (futures: belirli bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put option: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan hak) almay\u0131 mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir korunma (hedge: zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama) arac\u0131 haline getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon endi\u015feleri, OPEC+\u2019\u0131n \u00fcretim kesintilerini uzatma karar\u0131yla da b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc; bu ad\u0131m WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fc (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Buna ek olarak son Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Non-Farm Payrolls: ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi verisi) raporu 250 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi; bu da Fed\u2019in gev\u015femeyi (faiz indirimine gitmeyi) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesi i\u00e7in az gerek\u00e7e b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Piyasalar art\u0131k bu y\u0131l faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %40 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; iki ay \u00f6nce bu olas\u0131l\u0131k %85\u2019ti.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik veriler ile yeniden y\u00fckselen enflasyon sinyalleri \u00e7ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nca, alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) art\u0131yor. Bu ortam, y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin sert hareketlerden kazanmaya y\u00f6nelik stratejiler i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 ve vadede hem al\u0131m opsiyonu\/call hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu\/put almak; b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket bekleyip y\u00f6n\u00fc \u00f6nemsememek) kurmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131nda teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm yeniden bozuldu ve 2025\u2019teki tabloyu hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Ay ba\u015f\u0131nda psikolojik 5.000 dolar seviyesinin (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n izledi\u011fi yuvarlak e\u015fik) \u00fczerinde kalamayan fiyat, \u015fimdi 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131; bu seviye yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.820 dolar. 4.750 dolardaki yak\u0131n deste\u011fin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama olan 4.600 dolar civar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden test edilmesine kap\u0131 aralayabilir; bu da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemler i\u00e7in net bir hedef olu\u015fturur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda sert sat\u0131\u015f: fiyat 4.571 dolara inerek ayl\u0131k dibe yakla\u015ft\u0131. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Fed \u00f6ncesi belirsizlik artarken teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zay\u0131f; 4.550 kritik destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45684","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45684","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45684"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45684\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45684"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45684"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45684"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}