MUFG, yenin ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki son toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayabilece\u011fini, USD\/JPY\u2019nin Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u015eubat sonu ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen daha geni\u015f \u201cyen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d e\u011filimi i\u00e7inde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Hareketi Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir ara vermesine (faizi sabit tutarken daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na yak\u0131n mesajlar vermesi) ba\u011flad\u0131, ancak bunun kal\u0131c\u0131 bir de\u011fi\u015fim yaratmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemedi.<\/p>\n
Raporda, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadlerindeki bozulman\u0131n (ithalat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ihracat fiyatlar\u0131na g\u00f6re daha h\u0131zl\u0131 artmas\u0131; \u00fclke lehine fiyat dengesi bozulur) daha zay\u0131f yeni destekledi\u011fi s\u00f6ylendi. Ayr\u0131ca son IMM raporuna (ABD\u2019de vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131nda yay\u0131mlanan pozisyon verisi) at\u0131f yap\u0131larak, kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 fonlar\u0131n (bor\u00e7lanarak i\u015flem yapan b\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclatif fonlar) son haftalarda yen \u201ck\u0131sa\u201d pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (yenin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisiyle a\u00e7\u0131lan sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) yeniden art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Yaz\u0131da bu ko\u015fullar\u0131n, yen k\u0131sa vadede daha da zay\u0131flarsa Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nceki s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar\u0131 eylemle desteklemesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi. Ayr\u0131ca yetkililer devreye girmezse USD\/JPY\u2019de yeniden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Metinde Maliye Bakan\u0131 Katayama\u2019n\u0131n BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde bir kez daha uyar\u0131da bulundu\u011fu, \u201cGerekti\u011finde cesur ad\u0131mlar atmaya s\u00fcrekli de\u011findim\u201d dedi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Alt\u0131n Hafta (Golden Week) tatil d\u00f6nemine ili\u015fkin soruya ise \u201c24 saat yan\u0131t vermeye haz\u0131r\u0131z\u201d yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Katayama\u2019n\u0131n ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanmas\u0131) y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fini ve bunun yende spek\u00fclatif hareketleri (ekonomik temelden \u00e7ok k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat beklentisiyle yap\u0131lan i\u015flemler) k\u00f6r\u00fckledi\u011finin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi\u011fi eklendi.<\/p>\n
Yenin son d\u00f6nemdeki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini yeni bir trendten \u00e7ok ge\u00e7ici bir hareket olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutan daha b\u00fcy\u00fck etkenler h\u00e2l\u00e2 devrede. Bu da USD\/JPY\u2019de olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelerin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u201cal\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131\u201d olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ana unsur, ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki belirgin faiz fark\u0131. Fed\u2019in politika faizinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,75 civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n BoJ faizinin %0,25\u2019in \u00fczerinde kalmakta zorlanmas\u0131, yenden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p dolara yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmay\u0131 (daha y\u00fcksek faiz getirisi i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine ge\u00e7me; \u201cta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemi \/ carry trade\u201d mant\u0131\u011f\u0131) \u00e7ok cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu temel fark, yen \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
2024 ve 2025 e\u011filimlerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ayn\u0131 \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc tekrarland\u0131: Yen g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi d\u00f6nemleri k\u0131sa s\u00fcrd\u00fc ve k\u00fcresel piyasalar sakin kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. \u0130ki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki temel ekonomik farklar o tarihten bu yana daha da belirginle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, vadesi 1-2 ay olan USD\/JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren \u201ccall\u201d opsiyonu) y\u00f6nelmeyi g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, kur y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 potansiyeli sunarken riski \u00f6nceden tan\u0131mlar. En b\u00fcy\u00fck risk, Japon yetkililerin ani ve sert bir m\u00fcdahalesi (kurda h\u0131zl\u0131 hareketi durdurmak i\u00e7in resmi d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131) ve opsiyonlar olas\u0131 kayb\u0131 \u00f6denen primle (opsiyon i\u00e7in pe\u015fin \u00f6denen \u00fccret) s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
\u00d6zellikle Alt\u0131n Hafta tatil d\u00f6nemi ba\u015flarken yetkililerin uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekir. Verilere g\u00f6re Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervleri yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,2 trilyon dolara geriledi; 2023 zirvelerinin alt\u0131nda. Bu, m\u00fcdahale kapasitesinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ama h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. 162 seviyesinin \u00fczerine h\u0131zl\u0131 ve spek\u00fclatif bir atak, m\u00fcdahale i\u00e7in tetikleyici olabilir.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yen\u2019de toparlanma aldat\u0131c\u0131 m\u0131? MUFG, USD\/JPY\u2019de yen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fini, BoJ\u2019un \u015fahin molas\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131, carry trade ve k\u0131sa pozisyonlar bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. M\u00fcdahale riski art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45683","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45683","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45683"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45683\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45683"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45683"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45683"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}