Yakla\u015f\u0131k 3 hafta \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131da, Elliott Dalga (fiyat hareketlerini dalga yap\u0131s\u0131yla okumaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan teknik analiz y\u00f6ntemi) yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131yla Google i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015f (pozitif) bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm anlat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eubat zirvelerinden sonra \u00fc\u00e7 dalgal\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, ard\u0131ndan sar\u0131 kutu destek b\u00f6lgesinden (fiyat\u0131n s\u0131k al\u0131c\u0131 buldu\u011fu alan) gelen tepkiyle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kanal\u0131n (fiyat\u0131n paralel iki \u00e7izgi aras\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011filimle hareket etmesi) \u00fcst\u00fcne k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Devam\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f geldi\u011fi ve fiyat\u0131n yeni zirvelerde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc aktar\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca y\u00fckseli\u015fin ne kadar s\u00fcrebilece\u011fi net olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in baz\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u00e2r alabilece\u011fi ya da stop seviyelerini (zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in konulan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f seviyesi) yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilece\u011fi eklenmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcncellenen grafikte, Elliott Dalga yap\u0131s\u0131 korunursa, itki kanal\u0131n\u0131n (y\u00fckseli\u015fin ana hareketini g\u00f6steren kanal) \u00fcst \u00e7izgisinin yeniden test edilme ihtimalinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve bunun 380 civar\u0131nda olabilece\u011fi s\u00f6yleniyor. Ayr\u0131ca \u00f6zellikle bilan\u00e7o (\u015firketin finansal sonu\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131) \u00f6ncesinde, ilk destek olarak 330\u2019a do\u011fru k\u0131sa vadeli bir geri \u00e7ekilme ihtimalinden bahsediliyor.<\/p>\n
Daha fazla ayr\u0131nt\u0131 i\u00e7in 27 Nisan\u2019da yay\u0131nlanan kay\u0131tl\u0131 canl\u0131 webinara at\u0131f yap\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Hissenin y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana %18\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ve 415 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtiliyor; bu da bilan\u00e7o \u00f6ncesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme i\u015faret ediyor. \u201c\u0130ma edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) %55 ile y\u00fcksek; son 12 ay\u0131n %78\u2019lik diliminde yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in opsiyon primleri (opsiyonun fiyat\u0131) pahal\u0131. Bu durum, sonu\u00e7lar a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131ktan sonra \u201coynakl\u0131k \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u201d (beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015fmesi) riskini art\u0131r\u0131r; sadece al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) ya da sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) sat\u0131n alanlar\u0131n zarar g\u00f6rmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisini koruyan ve bilan\u00e7odan olumlu s\u00fcrpriz bekleyenler i\u00e7in, May\u0131s vadeli kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyattan uzakta olan (out-of-the-money) bir put kredi spread satmak (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda put al\u0131p satarak net prim geliri hedefleyen, riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 strateji) daha uygun bir tercih olabilir. Bu, y\u00fcksek primi de\u011ferlendirmeyi sa\u011flar ve hisse s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilirse \u201ctampon\u201d b\u0131rak\u0131r. B\u00f6yle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli bir i\u015flem, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir haber \u00f6ncesi pahal\u0131 call almak yerine \u00e7o\u011fu zaman daha temkinlidir.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc rallinin ard\u0131ndan temkinli olmak gerekti\u011fi, eldeki uzun (long) pozisyonlarda takip eden stop (fiyat y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e stop seviyesini yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan y\u00f6ntem) kullanman\u0131n savunmac\u0131 bir ad\u0131m oldu\u011fu ifade ediliyor. Son opsiyon verileri, gelecek ay vadesi dolan putlarda a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyonun (open interest: kapanmam\u0131\u015f toplam s\u00f6zle\u015fme say\u0131s\u0131) belirgin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da baz\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n aktif \u015fekilde korunma ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle, bilan\u00e7o sonras\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinden yararlanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan ve hisse belirli bir fiyat band\u0131nda kald\u0131k\u00e7a kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen \u201ciron condor\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede iki spread\u2019in birlikte kurulmas\u0131yla bant i\u00e7i hareketten ve prim gelirinden yararlanan, riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 n\u00f6tr strateji) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Google\u2019da Elliott Dalga y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: 415\u2019te g\u00fc\u00e7 var; 380 retest, k\u0131sa vadede 330 deste\u011fi izleniyor. Bilan\u00e7o \u00f6ncesi %55 \u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k pahal\u0131; spread\/iron condor \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45679","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45679","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45679"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45679\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45679"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45679"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45679"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}