TD Securities, g\u00f6reve gelmesi beklenen Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019un **yeni enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131** destekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bunlar aras\u0131nda **k\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama (trimmed mean)** ve olas\u0131 bir **b\u00fcy\u00fck veri (big data) fiyat projesi** yer al\u0131yor. **K\u0131rp\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama**, enflasyon hesaplan\u0131rken a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 art\u0131\u015f veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6steren kalemlerin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131yla, daha \u201ctemel\u201d e\u011filimi g\u00f6stermeyi ama\u00e7layan bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmd\u00fcr. **B\u00fcy\u00fck veri fiyat projesi** ise, \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u00e7evrim i\u00e7i ve y\u00fcksek frekansl\u0131 fiyat verisini kullanarak fiyat hareketlerini daha h\u0131zl\u0131 izlemeyi hedefleyen bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmad\u0131r. \u015eirket, bu eklerin **k\u0131sa vadede** para politikas\u0131 seyrini de\u011fi\u015ftirmesinin olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Fed yetkililerinin zaten geni\u015f bir enflasyon ve ekonomi g\u00f6stergesi setini takip etti\u011fini ifade eden TD Securities, **faiz indirimi** i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 **temel (altta yatan) enflasyonun** normale d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren net kan\u0131t gerekti\u011fini ekledi. **Temel enflasyon**, ge\u00e7ici oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek kalemlerin etkisi azalt\u0131larak enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 e\u011filimini anlat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
TD Securities, yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde politikay\u0131 gev\u015fetmek i\u00e7in gereken ko\u015fullar\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 zor oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Enflasyonu y\u00fcksek tutan baz\u0131 unsurlar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici olabilece\u011fini de belirtti.<\/p>\n
\u015eirkete g\u00f6re Fed\u2019in en olas\u0131 duru\u015fu \u015fimdilik **faizleri sabit tutmak**. TD Securities, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndaki **FOMC** toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar (FOMC: Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 alan Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu) Fed\u2019in faiz indirimine ba\u015flamas\u0131 i\u00e7in yeterli kan\u0131t\u0131n olu\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve zamanla **n\u00f6tr** seviyeye do\u011fru ilerleyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. **N\u00f6tr faiz**, ekonomiyi ne h\u0131zland\u0131ran ne de yava\u015flatan faiz d\u00fczeyi anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n
2025 sonlar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, 2026 yaz\u0131na do\u011fru indirimlerin ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi vard\u0131; ancak takvim \u00f6telendi. Mart 2026 istihdam raporunda 240 bin yeni i\u015fe i\u015faret eden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f da sab\u0131r arg\u00fcman\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda odak, **bekle-g\u00f6r** modundaki Fed olacak.<\/p>\n
Bu beklenen istikrarla, yak\u0131n vadede oynakl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalabilir; **VIX endeksi** (hisse piyasas\u0131nda beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 14 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor. Bu ortam, k\u0131sa vadeli **opsiyon** sat\u0131p **prim** toplama gibi stratejileri destekleyebilir. (Opsiyon: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme; prim: bu hak i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel.) Yine de s\u00fcrpriz enflasyon veya istihdam verileri bu sakinli\u011fi bozabilir.<\/p>\n
**Faiz t\u00fcrevlerinde** (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) strateji, daha ileri vadeye bakmak olabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Haziran-Temmuz yerine Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 civar\u0131nda bir indirimi fiyatlayan pozisyonlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu, olas\u0131 bir politika d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011fine hedeflemek i\u00e7in **SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar\u0131n** kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7erebilir. (SOFR: ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 fonlama faizi; vadeli i\u015flem: ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi.)<\/p>\n
Hisse piyasalar\u0131nda Fed\u2019in \u201c**uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz**\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisseleri i\u00e7in olumsuz bir etki yarat\u0131r. Daha temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m, t\u00fcrevlerle korunma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olabilir. Bu, uzun portf\u00f6yleri olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in geni\u015f endekslerde **koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonu (protective put)** almay\u0131 i\u00e7erebilir. (Put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan sat\u0131m hakk\u0131.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fed\u2019de yeni d\u00f6nem mi? TD Securities\u2019e g\u00f6re olas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan Warsh, trimmed mean ve big data enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlerini destekliyor; ancak k\u0131sa vadede politika de\u011fi\u015fmez: indirim i\u00e7in \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonda net kan\u0131t \u015fart.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45678","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45678","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45678"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45678\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45678"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45678"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45678"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}