Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ), 6\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 3 oyla politika faizini %0,75\u2019te sabit tuttu. Banka, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) tahminini %2,8\u2019e y\u00fckseltti, b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini %0,5\u2019e indirdi.<\/p>\n
B\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f karar, haziranda olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik piyasa beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. A\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Japon tahvil faizleri ve USD\/JPY (ABD dolar\u0131\/Japon yeni paritesi) hareketlendi.<\/p>\n
BoJ, jeopolitik gerilimler nedeniyle Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmeleri ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 izledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. 6\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 3\u2019l\u00fck oylama, Ueda\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemindeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
Japon hayat sigortas\u0131 \u015firketleri, yeni al\u0131mlarda yerli bor\u00e7lanma k\u00e2\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131nda (Japon devlet tahvilleri) 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizlerin %3\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 hedefliyor.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019nin \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na yatk\u0131n) bir \u015fekilde faizi sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, haziranda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, son ulusal \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisinin %2,9 gelmesiyle destekleniyor. B\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f oy, b\u00fcy\u00fcme pahas\u0131na da olsa enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede aciliyetin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY, k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce 170\u2019e y\u00f6neldikten sonra 165,50 civar\u0131na geri \u00e7ekildi; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u00fcrebilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Y\u00fckseli\u015flerin, k\u0131sa pozisyon (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f) i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi g\u00fcndemde. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi i\u00e7in BoJ\u2019den daha net bir politika deste\u011fi ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131 da bu beklentiyi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. 6-3\u2019l\u00fck sonu\u00e7, bankan\u0131n yenin zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na (dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131na) tolerans\u0131nda belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Artan belirsizlik, USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda 1 ayl\u0131k \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) %12\u2019nin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; bu, 2025 sonundaki daha sakin d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re belirgin bir s\u0131\u00e7rama. Bu ortam, haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma; iki y\u00f6ne de sert hareketten yararlanma) gibi oynakl\u0131k stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Ani ve sert bir politika ayarlamas\u0131 riski, son y\u0131llar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n
Tahvil taraf\u0131nda, Japon 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili faizleri %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; ancak bu oran, b\u00fcy\u00fck hayat sigortas\u0131 \u015firketlerinin hedefledi\u011fi %3 seviyesinden h\u00e2l\u00e2 uzak. Bu durum, uzun vadede Japonya\u2019ya do\u011fru sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n artabilece\u011fine ve bunun USD\/JPY \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 yaratabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda Japon tahvil faizlerinin kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Yenin zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n temel nedeni, ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131yd\u0131; ABD\u2019de Fed politika faizi %4,5 seviyesinde. Ancak BoJ\u2019nin \u015fahin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc bu dengeyi zorluyor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, ge\u00e7en y\u0131ldan beri piyasada \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan \u201cyen ta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemi\u201dni (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli yende bor\u00e7lan\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek faizli para birimlerinde yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma) tersine \u00e7evirebilir. Bu pozisyonlar\u0131n h\u0131zla kapat\u0131lmas\u0131, USD\/JPY\u2019de bir\u00e7ok ki\u015finin bekledi\u011finden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ve daha sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoJ faizini 6-3 oyla %0,75\u2019te tuttu; \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon tahmini %2,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcme %0,5\u2019e indi. Haziranda art\u0131\u015f beklentisi, yen g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, tahvil\/opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve carry trade \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45675","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45675","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45675"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45675\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45675"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45675"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45675"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}