Sterlin, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) faiz karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda geriledi. GBP\/JPY 215,18 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,27 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve iki haftal\u0131k bant i\u00e7inde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
BoJ, politika faizini (ekonomiyi y\u00f6nlendirmek i\u00e7in belirledi\u011fi ana faiz oran\u0131) 0,75\u2019te 6\u2019ya 3 oyla sabit tuttu; \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcye faizin 1,0\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. Banka enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) tahminini y\u00fckseltirken b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc; gerek\u00e7e olarak ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 risklerini ve artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fkan Kazuo Ueda, BoJ\u2019un ekonomik faaliyet, fiyatlar ve finansal ko\u015fullara g\u00f6re faiz art\u0131rmaya ve verdi\u011fi deste\u011fi ayarlamaya devam etmeyi planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca jeopolitik gerilimler nedeniyle 2026 mali y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flayabilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Yen g\u00fc\u00e7lendi ancak hareket s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 Japonya\u2019da y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetleri bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) ile BoJ aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131k) kritik olmaya devam ediyor; BoE karar\u0131 Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n
GBP\/JPY, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n (basit hareketli ortalama: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ortalama fiyat; trendi g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r) \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu da k\u0131sa vadeli e\u011filimin yukar\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6stergedir) 60\u2019a yak\u0131n ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sark\u0131yor. MACD (hareketli ortalama yak\u0131nsama\/\u0131raksama: trend ve momentum g\u00f6stergesi) ise zay\u0131flayan ye\u015fil histogram (y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren \u00e7ubuklar) veriyor.<\/p>\n
Destek 214,50 ve 213,00 seviyelerinde; ard\u0131ndan 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 211,71 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 206,50 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Diren\u00e7 216,00\u2019da; 216,00 \u00fczeri kapan\u0131\u015fta (g\u00fcn\u00fcn belirli zaman dilimindeki kapan\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131) hedefler 217,00 ve 218,00 olabilir.<\/p>\n
GBP\/JPY\u2019nin zirvelere yak\u0131n yatay seyretti\u011fini (konsolidasyon: fiyat\u0131n dar aral\u0131kta s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in temkinli bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm olu\u015fturuyor. BoJ\u2019un 0,75\u2019te \u201c\u015fahin\u201d tonda sabit kalmas\u0131 (\u015fahin: daha y\u00fcksek faiz yanl\u0131s\u0131) paritenin y\u00fckseli\u015fine ge\u00e7ici bir tavan koyuyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k piyasa, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in BoE\u2019nin bu y\u0131l en az iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Devam eden ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fc (ABD referans ham petrol\u00fc) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; bu da k\u00fcresel enflasyonu besleyen temel etkenlerden biri. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de son T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisi enflasyonun %4,1\u2019de kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu durum BoE \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 kalma bask\u0131s\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu tablo, \u201cpozitif ta\u015f\u0131ma\u201d (carry trade: faizi y\u00fcksek para birimini elde tutup daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminde fonlanarak faiz fark\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7) nedeniyle Sterlin uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (long: fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon) cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ancak y\u00fckseli\u015fin yoruldu\u011funa dair i\u015faretler de var. RSI gibi momentum g\u00f6stergelerinde \u201cay\u0131 uyumsuzlu\u011fu\u201d (bearish divergence: fiyat y\u00fckselirken g\u00f6stergenin g\u00fc\u00e7 kaybetmesi) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu, BoJ\u2019un politikay\u0131 normale d\u00f6nd\u00fcrme (normalle\u015fme: \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz\/te\u015fvikten \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daha inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 hale geldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor ve 2025 sonundaki benzer s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert Yen rallilerini (h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kazan\u0131m\u0131) hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle 214,50 deste\u011finin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi seviye) k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan hak) almak, ani bir ters d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir korunma (hedge: riski azaltma) olabilir.<\/p>\n
216,00\u2019deki teknik direncin ve zay\u0131flayan yukar\u0131 momentumun (momentum: fiyat hareketinin g\u00fcc\u00fc) etkisiyle burada \u201cgelir \u00fcretimi\u201d (opsiyon primi toplama) f\u0131rsat\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 217,00 ve \u00fczeri olan al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine y\u00f6nelik hak) satmak, parite BoE karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi bantta kal\u0131rsa zaman de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan (time decay: s\u00fcre ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e opsiyon de\u011ferinin erimesi) faydalanabilir. Bu strateji, k\u0131r\u0131lma gelene kadar prim (premium: opsiyonun pe\u015fin bedeli) toplamay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc BoE toplant\u0131s\u0131, mevcut s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 k\u0131rabilecek bir sonraki ana tetikleyici. Beklenenden daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir a\u00e7\u0131klama, pariteyi 216,00 direncinin \u00fcst\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Bu senaryoyu bekleyenler, 218,00\u2019e do\u011fru sert harekete oynamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin\/Yen, BoJ\u2019un faizi 0,75\u2019te \u015fahin tonda sabitlemesiyle 215,18\u2019e geriledi. Enflasyon tahmini y\u00fckselirken b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; g\u00f6zler Per\u015fembe BoE\u2019de. 216 diren\u00e7, 214,50 kritik destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45672","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45672","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45672"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45672\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45672"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45672"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45672"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}