Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ), politika faizini %0,75\u2019te 6\u2019ya 3 oyla sabit tuttu. Oy fark\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131, haziranda ya da yaz aylar\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Mart ve ocak toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde yaln\u0131zca Takata Hajime oy kullanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Son oylama sonucu, piyasalar\u0131n yaz aylar\u0131nda hamle ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %54 olarak fiyatlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yeni g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm raporu, 2026 mali y\u0131l\u0131nda GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la, ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini 0,5 puan, 2027 mali y\u0131l\u0131nda ise 0,1 puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k rapor, taze g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 enflasyonu (mevsimsel ve oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f daha istikrarl\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6stergesi) 2026 mali y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in 0,4 puan, 2027 mali y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in 0,5 puan yukar\u0131 revize etti.<\/p>\n
Rapor, enerji kaynakl\u0131 maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu ekonomik faaliyetten daha fazla etkiledi\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Japon devlet tahvili (JGB, Japan Government Bond) getirileri hafif y\u00fckselirken, Japon yeni g\u00fc\u00e7lendi.<\/p>\n
Yenin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; USD\/JPY paritesi 160 seviyesini test ediyor. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n son \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon verisi %2,9 ile (oynak kalemlerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f daha kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) merkez bankas\u0131 hedefinin belirgin \u00fczerinde geldi. Bu nedenle USD\/JPY \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Yenin daha da de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleri (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) kullanabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin JPY al\u0131m opsiyonu (call, belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak.<\/p>\n
10 y\u0131ll\u0131k JGB faizi haber sonras\u0131 %1,10\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, 10 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen bir seviye. Piyasa faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tam fiyatlad\u0131k\u00e7a getirilerin y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini, bunun da tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu olas\u0131 fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne g\u00f6re konumlanmak i\u00e7in faiz vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerini (futures, ileri tarihte i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden standart s\u00f6zle\u015fme) kullanabilir.<\/p>\n
2025 boyunca g\u00f6r\u00fclen genel havadan belirgin bir sapma var. O d\u00f6nemde BoJ\u2019un para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (faiz art\u0131rma ve\/veya likiditeyi azaltma) iste\u011fine dair \u015f\u00fcpheler yeni zay\u0131f tutuyordu. \u015eimdi oylamadaki ayr\u0131\u015fma, politika de\u011fi\u015fiminin yakla\u015fabilece\u011fine dair daha somut sinyal veriyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n tam zamanlamas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik ve piyasalar\u0131n yaz hamlesine %54 olas\u0131l\u0131k vermesi, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Bu ortamda opsiyon stratejileri (belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) risk y\u00f6netimiyle birlikte g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ifade etmek i\u00e7in daha i\u015flevsel olabilir. D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda y\u00fckselen z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma), USD\/JPY paritesinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put, belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara y\u00f6nelik bir se\u00e7enek haline getirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoJ faizi %0,75\u2019te tutsa da oylama 6-3\u2019e darald\u0131: yaz\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 masada. B\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u015fa\u011f\u0131, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon yukar\u0131 revize; yen g\u00fc\u00e7lendi, JGB getirileri y\u00fckseldi, oynakl\u0131k artt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45666","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45666","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45666"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45666\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45666"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45666"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45666"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}