Bankac\u0131l\u0131k Komitesi\u2019ndeki bir senat\u00f6r, Adalet Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Department of Justice) Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131 da kapsayan Fed binas\u0131ndaki in\u015faat i\u015fiyle ilgili ceza soru\u015fturmas\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesinin ard\u0131ndan, Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 adayl\u0131\u011f\u0131na yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 itiraz\u0131 geri \u00e7ekti. Bu de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fin, Bankac\u0131l\u0131k Komitesi\u2019nin Warsh\u2019\u0131n adayl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yar\u0131n onaylamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7mas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Komite oylamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Warsh, Senato taraf\u0131ndan may\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131nda, hatta gelecek hafta kadar erken bir tarihte onaylanabilir ve Powell\u2019\u0131n yerine may\u0131s ortas\u0131na kadar ge\u00e7ebilir. Haber, ba\u015fkan de\u011fi\u015firse Powell\u2019\u0131n Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu\u2019nda (Board; Fed\u2019in karar organ\u0131) kal\u0131p kalmayaca\u011f\u0131na dair belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Haberde y\u00fcksek enflasyona dikkat \u00e7ekiliyor ve Warsh\u2019\u0131n faiz indirimlerini daha erken destekleyip desteklemeyece\u011fi tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131ndan gelen bask\u0131 ile Fed\u2019in uzun vadeli ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik endi\u015felere de\u011finiliyor.<\/p>\n
Commerzbank ekonomistleri, ilk politika faizi indiriminin (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n temel faizi) y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru gelmesini, ard\u0131ndan 2027\u2019de iki indirim daha yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca metnin bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n may\u0131s ortas\u0131na kadar Fed\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131na ge\u00e7me ihtimali artarken, piyasa beklentilerinde belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bu liderlik de\u011fi\u015fimi belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor; Warsh\u2019\u0131n faiz indirimi konusunda siyasi bask\u0131ya (political pressure; siyaset\u00e7ilerin para politikas\u0131n\u0131 etkileme iste\u011fi) ne kadar a\u00e7\u0131k olaca\u011f\u0131 kritik de\u011fi\u015fken. Yar\u0131n ba\u015flayacak onay s\u00fcreci de \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (volatility; fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta dalgalanmas\u0131) ba\u015fl\u0131ca kayna\u011f\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ge\u00e7i\u015f ilerlerken piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f riski var. VIX endeksi (piyasadaki beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) son haftalarda 15 civar\u0131nda dar bir bantta seyrediyor; bu da piyasan\u0131n bu liderlik riskini yeterince fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Yak\u0131n vadeli VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call option; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) veya VIX vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131 (futures; ileri tarihli fiyat \u00fczerinden al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) belirsizli\u011fe kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak i\u00e7in tercih edilebilir.<\/p>\n
SOFR vadeli i\u015flem fiyatlamas\u0131na g\u00f6re (SOFR; gecelik risksiz dolara yak\u0131n referans faiz, bu kontratlar piyasan\u0131n faiz beklentisini yans\u0131t\u0131r) piyasa, 2026 sonuna kadar yaln\u0131zca tek bir faiz indirimi ihtimalini %50 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Warsh y\u00f6netimindeki Fed\u2019in bask\u0131ya daha a\u00e7\u0131k olaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyorsa, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz beklentisine g\u00f6re pozisyon almak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar. Bu, Aral\u0131k 2026 veya Mart 2027 SOFR vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131 alarak yap\u0131labilir; piyasa daha agresif faiz indirimlerini fiyatlamaya ba\u015flarsa bu kontratlar\u0131n de\u011feri artabilir.<\/p>\n
2018\u2019de Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen\u2019dan g\u00f6revi devrald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda piyasa yeni politika duru\u015funa uyum sa\u011flamak zorunda kalm\u0131\u015f ve sert dalgalanmalar g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu d\u00f6nem, tepedeki de\u011fi\u015fimin yerle\u015fik trendleri sarsabilece\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, y\u0131l i\u00e7inde olas\u0131 bir politika de\u011fi\u015fimini yakalamak i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde uzun vadeli opsiyonlar\u0131n (long-dated options; vadesi uzun opsiyon) faydal\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d bir Fed (dovish; enflasyondan \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u00f6nceleyen, faiz indirimine daha yatk\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131m) muhtemelen ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131r ve tahvilleri g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir. Dolar Endeksi (DXY; dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7er) bu \u00e7eyrekte 106\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131; ancak yeni y\u00f6netimle faiz indirimi beklentileri h\u0131zlan\u0131rsa bu g\u00fc\u00e7 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde tersine d\u00f6nebilir. Bu nedenle TLT gibi tahvil ETF\u2019lerinde (ETF; borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 veya dolar\u0131n di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put option; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fed\u2019de koltuk de\u011fi\u015fimi piyasay\u0131 sarsabilir: DOJ soru\u015fturmay\u0131 kapat\u0131nca Warsh itiraz\u0131 kalkt\u0131, yar\u0131n komiteden ge\u00e7ebilir. May\u0131sta Powell\u2019\u0131n yerine olas\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015f; ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k, faiz indirimi ve VIX\/SOFR pozisyonlar\u0131 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45665","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45665","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45665"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45665\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45665"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45665"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45665"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}