ABD\u2019de ADP istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi 4 haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 4 Nisan\u2019da 39,3 bin seviyesine geriledi. \u00d6nceki d\u00f6nemde 54,8 bin seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
Bu, iki veri kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 15,5 binlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor. Veri, ADP\u2019nin \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi 4 haftal\u0131k ortalama ile \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6stergedir.<\/p>\n
Son ADP verisi, istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda belirgin yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret ediyor; 4 haftal\u0131k ortalama 39,3 bin ile y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi. Bu tablo, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda ivme kayb\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, Fed\u2019in son d\u00f6nemdeki \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funu (faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimini) sorgulat\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle mart ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) verisinde enflasyonun %3,1 ile y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 bu tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zorla\u015f\u0131yor: Bir yanda daha erken faiz indirimi ihtimali, di\u011fer yanda ekonomik yava\u015flama riski var. Bu gerilim piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na yans\u0131yor. VIX endeksi (piyasan\u0131n beklenen dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) bu ay %15\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckselerek 19,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviye 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen b\u00f6lgesel banka stresinden bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey. Bu ortamda, keskin fiyat hareketlerinden yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen opsiyon stratejileri (belirli bir vadede fiyat\u0131n sert hareket edece\u011fine oynayan y\u00f6ntemler) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; \u00f6rne\u011fin SPX \u00fczerinde \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan dalgalanmadan kazan\u00e7 hedefleme) daha temkinli bir se\u00e7enek olabilir.<\/p>\n
En h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki faiz piyasas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Vadeli i\u015flemler (gelecekte belirli fiyattan i\u015flem yapmay\u0131 sa\u011flayan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) art\u0131k Eyl\u00fcl FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda (Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 veren kurul toplant\u0131s\u0131) %65 faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu veri \u00f6ncesinde, piyasan\u0131n ima etti\u011fi olas\u0131l\u0131k %30\u2019un alt\u0131ndayd\u0131; alg\u0131da belirgin de\u011fi\u015fim var. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri (k\u0131sa vadeli dolar faizini izleyen g\u00f6sterge \u00fczerinden t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) veya Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden yararlanma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) gibi ara\u00e7larla daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ve daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getiri beklentisine g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de ADP 4 haftal\u0131k istihdam ortalamas\u0131 39,3 bine inerek y\u0131l\u0131n dibini g\u00f6rd\u00fc: Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fi sorgulan\u0131yor. VIX 19,5\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131; Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz indirimi ihtimali %65\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45664","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45664","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45664"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45664\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45664"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45664"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45664"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}