Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve jeopolitik belirsizlik, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na (USD) sadece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek sa\u011flad\u0131. ABD hisse senetlerinin (equities: borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren \u015firket hisseleri) diren\u00e7li seyri ve ay sonu ak\u0131mlar\u0131 (month-end flows: ay sonunda portf\u00f6ylerin hedef a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131klara getirilmesi i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) USD performans\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD borsalar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rken, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda hisse piyasalar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu. EUR\/USD ve di\u011fer USD pariteleri \u015fu a\u015famada petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan veya faiz farklar\u0131ndan (rate differentials: iki \u00fclkenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark) ziyade k\u00fcresel hisse piyasalar\u0131na daha duyarl\u0131.<\/p>\n
Nisan\u2019da ABD borsalar\u0131n\u0131n daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermesi nedeniyle ay sonu ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n Dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu ak\u0131mlar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde zay\u0131flarsa ve K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki m\u00fczakerelerde somut ilerleme g\u00f6r\u00fclmezse, USD\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir.<\/p>\n
Avustralya Dolar\u0131 ve Kanada Dolar\u0131 gibi \u201cy\u00fcksek beta\u201d (high-beta: risk i\u015ftah\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daha h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kazanan, risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daha h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kaybeden) emtia para birimleri (commodity currencies: de\u011feri emtia fiyatlar\u0131yla yak\u0131ndan ili\u015fkili para birimleri) daha \u00e7ok tercih edildi. Odak t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni verilerinde. Ayr\u0131ca FOMC (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 veren kurul) karar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken ve Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon ve Meta\u2019dan gelecek bilan\u00e7olar (earnings: \u015firket k\u00e2r\/zarar sonu\u00e7lar\u0131) \u00f6ncesinde, USD paritelerinde oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (volatility: fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert dalgalanmas\u0131) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 olas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel belirsizlik normalde dolar i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir zemin olu\u015fturmal\u0131yd\u0131; ancak \u015fu ana kadar destek s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Bunun ana nedeni, ABD borsalar\u0131n\u0131n dikkat \u00e7ekici \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131: S&P 500 ay ortas\u0131ndaki gerilemenin ard\u0131ndan toparland\u0131 ve art\u0131ya ge\u00e7ti. Piyasa \u015fu anda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyreden petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7ok, k\u00fcresel borsalardaki harekete tepki veriyor.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n zay\u0131f seyrindeki bir di\u011fer kritik unsur ay sonu ak\u0131mlar\u0131. Nisan\u2019da ABD hisseleri k\u00fcresel piyasalardan daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi i\u00e7in, portf\u00f6y y\u00f6neticileri portf\u00f6ylerini dengelemek (rebalance: varl\u0131k da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 hedef oranlara d\u00f6nd\u00fcrmek) amac\u0131yla dolar sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131yor olabilir. Bu, teknik (fiyat hareketinin temel veriden \u00e7ok ak\u0131\u015f ve pozisyonlardan etkilenmesi) bir bask\u0131 ve dolar\u0131n temel (fundamental: ekonomi, faiz, enflasyon gibi ana g\u00f6stergelere dayal\u0131) g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli olarak perdeleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ay sonu ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde etkisini yitirmesiyle dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015finin h\u0131zlanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (derivative: de\u011feri d\u00f6viz, faiz, emtia gibi bir dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, may\u0131sta daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolardan fayda sa\u011flayabilecek pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Jeopolitik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde somut ilerleme olmad\u0131k\u00e7a, dolar i\u00e7in daha olas\u0131 y\u00f6n yukar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn i\u00e7in piyasalarda temkinli duru\u015f \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; yar\u0131nki FOMC karar\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji \u015firketlerinin bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 bekleniyor. Son t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni verisi 97,0 ile beklentinin biraz alt\u0131nda geldi; bu da maj\u00f6r d\u00f6viz paritelerinde i\u015flemlerin daha dar bantta kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar neden y\u00fckselmiyor? Y\u00fcksek petrol ve jeopolitik risk s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek verirken, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD borsalar\u0131 ve ay sonu rebalans ak\u0131mlar\u0131 USD\u2019yi bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Ak\u0131mlar zay\u0131flarsa, m\u00fczakere ilerlemezse dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45663","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45663","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45663"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45663\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45663"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45663"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45663"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}