Brent petrol, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n fiilen kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131 ve ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin t\u0131kanmas\u0131yla son \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Brent 100 dolar\/varil \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, piyasalar petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon \u015fokunun daha kal\u0131c\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Axios\u2019un haberine g\u00f6re \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7maya y\u00f6nelik yeni bir \u00f6neriyi ABD\u2019ye sundu. Bu geli\u015fme, haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda fiyatlardaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlam\u0131\u015f olabilir.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadede ilerleme g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyince Brent g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde y\u00fckseldi ve g\u00fcn\u00fc %2,75 art\u0131\u015fla 108,23 dolar\/varil seviyesinde kapatt\u0131. Bu, nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndaki iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkes ilan\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en y\u00fcksek kapan\u0131\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n
Gece saatlerinde Brent %1,00 daha artarak 109,31 dolar\/varile \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Hareket vadeli fiyatlarda (futures: ileri tarihli teslimat i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden yap\u0131lan standart s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) da g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; 6 ay vadeli Brent kontrat\u0131 %1,79 y\u00fckselerek 88,01 dolar\/varile ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Brent yakla\u015f\u0131k bir haftad\u0131r 100 dolar\/varil \u00fczerinde. Bu durum enflasyon endi\u015felerini yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle Brent\u2019in 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi, y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlanma (bullish positioning: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen i\u015flem) i\u00e7in net bir sinyal veriyor. ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin t\u0131kanmas\u0131 da bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor; arz \u015fokunun (supply shock: piyasaya sunulan petrol miktar\u0131nda ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) ge\u00e7ici olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Mevcut tanker izleme verileri, bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7en trafi\u011fin ge\u00e7en aya g\u00f6re %90 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da fiziki piyasada arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (physical tightness: teslim edilebilir petrol\u00fcn azalmas\u0131) teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n
Vadeli fiyat e\u011frisi (futures curve: farkl\u0131 vadelerdeki kontrat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131ralamas\u0131) sert backwardation\u2019da. Backwardation, yak\u0131n vadeli kontratlar\u0131n daha pahal\u0131, ileri vadeli kontratlar\u0131n daha ucuz olmas\u0131d\u0131r; bu da spotta arz\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret eder. Yak\u0131n ay kontratlar, 6 ay sonras\u0131 vadeye g\u00f6re belirgin primle i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; 6 ay vade \u015fu anda 88 dolar\/varil civar\u0131nda. Bu yap\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli kontratlar\u0131 elde tutmay\u0131 veya uzun vadeli kontratlar\u0131 satmay\u0131 (daha ileri vadede sat\u0131\u015f) cazip hale getiriyor. OPEC+ \u00fcretim kesintilerini (OPEC+ production cuts: OPEC ve ortaklar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretimi azaltma karar\u0131) takiben 2025 sonundaki arz pani\u011finden bu yana bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte kal\u0131c\u0131 backwardation g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik belirsizlik nedeniyle opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) \u00e7ok y\u00fckseldi. CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) (OVX: petrol opsiyonlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen volatilite endeksi) bu hafta 50\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu durum opsiyonu do\u011frudan sat\u0131n almay\u0131 pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlarken y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in bull call spread (bull call spread: biri daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, di\u011feri daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 iki call opsiyonu ile kurulan y\u00fckseli\u015f stratejisi; net prim maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr, kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar) kullanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (selling puts: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse al\u0131m y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc do\u011furan opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131) ise net bir diplomatik k\u0131r\u0131lma g\u00f6r\u00fclene kadar ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc riskli.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda zay\u0131flayan genel enflasyon endi\u015felerini yeniden alevlendiriyor. 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k breakeven enflasyon oran\u0131 (breakeven inflation: enflasyona endeksli tahvil ile nominal tahvil aras\u0131ndaki farktan t\u00fcretilen piyasa enflasyon beklentisi g\u00f6stergesi) %2,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ve y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu ortam, daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirimini erteleyebilmesi) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu kriz Brent\u2019i orant\u0131s\u0131z \u015fekilde etkiliyor ve di\u011fer referans fiyatlara kar\u015f\u0131 spread (spread: iki fiyat aras\u0131ndaki fark) i\u015flemlerinde f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. Brent\u2019in WTI\u2019a (WTI: ABD\u2019de \u00fcretilen ve fiyat\u0131 ABD merkezli olu\u015fan petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) g\u00f6re primi 10 dolar\/varilin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen bir seviye. WTI, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 aksakl\u0131klardan daha korunakl\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu fark\u0131n geni\u015f kalmas\u0131na ya da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha da a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde alarm zilleri: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz fiilen kapal\u0131, ABD\u2013\u0130ran hatt\u0131 t\u0131kal\u0131. Brent 108-109 dolarda, kal\u0131c\u0131 arz\/enflasyon \u015foku fiyatlan\u0131yor. Backwardation sert, OVX 50+; Brent-WTI primi 10 dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45657","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45657","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45657"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45657\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45657"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45657"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45657"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}