G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f (XAG\/USD), Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 d\u00fc\u015ferek 73,00 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi ve 72,90 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, Fed\u2019in faizi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc toplant\u0131da da %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. CME FedWatch Tool (Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 kararlar\u0131n\u0131 vadeli i\u015flemler fiyatlamas\u0131na g\u00f6re olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa \u00e7eviren g\u00f6sterge) faizde de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmama ihtimalini %76,7 olarak g\u00f6steriyor; geri kalan k\u0131s\u0131m ise faiz indirimi fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Faiz patikas\u0131na (faizlerin gelecekte izleyece\u011fi y\u00f6n) dair ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 i\u00e7in politika metni ve Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 izlenecek. ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparlanma da g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131; bu toparlanma, Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerinden olu\u015fan sepete kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) %0,25 art\u0131\u015fla 98,75 civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi. Dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, dolar cinsinden fiyatlanan metallerin (\u00f6rne\u011fin g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f) cazibesini azaltabilir.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f fiyat\u0131 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vererek trendi izleyen ortalama) 76,22 dolar civar\u0131ndaki seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc. RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi: 0\u2013100 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 42 civar\u0131nda, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ve hen\u00fcz a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
Diren\u00e7, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019ya yak\u0131n 76,22 dolarda. Bu seviyenin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda 83,06 dolar (17 Nisan zirvesi) g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Destek seviyeleri 68,28 dolar (7 Nisan dibi) ve d\u00f6rt ayl\u0131k dip olan 61 dolar civar\u0131.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f piyasas\u0131nda ge\u00e7en y\u0131la benzer bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm olu\u015fuyor. Nisan 2025\u2019te Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde belirsizlik ve dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 73 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sert gerilemi\u015fti. Bu hafta yine Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 varken yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n temkinli ve oynakl\u0131\u011fa (fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert dalgalanmas\u0131) a\u00e7\u0131k bir d\u00f6neme haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Mevcut tablo bu temkinli duru\u015fu destekliyor. Mart ay\u0131 ABD enflasyonu %2,9 ile y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu; bu da Fed\u2019in bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 netle\u015ftirmiyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l o d\u00f6nemde Fed faizi %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutarken, \u015fu anda faiz %2,75\u2013%3,00 band\u0131nda ve piyasalar bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n faiz indirimi mi yoksa pas ge\u00e7me mi olaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda ikiye b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f durumda. ABD Dolar Endeksi de o d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve 105\u2019in \u00fczerinde; bu durum genelde g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumsuz bir etki yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda k\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. 70,00 dolar seviyesine yak\u0131n \u201cput\u201d opsiyonu (sat\u0131m opsiyonu: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 kullan\u0131lan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak, ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki fiyat hareketine benzer bi\u00e7imde g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn 68,28 dolar deste\u011fini test etmesi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir. XAG opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cimplied volatility\u201d (\u00f6rt\u00fck volatilite: opsiyon fiyat\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) art\u0131yor; bu da giri\u015f maliyetini azaltmak i\u00e7in \u201cbear put spread\u201d (ay\u0131 put spreadi: bir put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir put satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisine y\u00f6nelik strateji) gibi y\u00f6ntemleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir.<\/p>\n
2025 d\u00f6nemindeki teknik seviyeler piyasada psikolojik a\u00e7\u0131dan h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00f6nemli. Fiyat\u0131n 72,90 dolar civar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalamamas\u0131, eski destek b\u00f6lgelerine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riskini art\u0131rabilir. Fed a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 sonras\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar h\u0131zlan\u0131rsa, ge\u00e7en y\u0131ldan kalan d\u00f6rt ayl\u0131k dip olan 61,00 dolar civar\u0131 uzun vadeli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n
VT Markets\u2019te canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed \u00f6ncesi g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte sert sat\u0131\u015f: XAG\/USD %3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 73 dolar alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. Dolar toparlanmas\u0131 bask\u0131 kuruyor; teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zay\u0131f. 76,22 diren\u00e7; 68,28 ve 61 destek. Opsiyonlarda volatilite y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45656","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45656","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45656"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45656\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45656"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45656"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45656"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}