Societe Generale analistleri, Macaristan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bug\u00fcn politika faizini %6,25 seviyesinde sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Macaristan\u2019da man\u015fet T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi; genel enflasyon) martta y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; \u015fubatta %1,4\u2019t\u00fc. Veri beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Analistler, jeopolitik risklerin (b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ve siyasi gerilimlerin piyasalara etkisi) ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede para politikas\u0131nda (faiz kararlar\u0131 ve likidite ad\u0131mlar\u0131) hareket alan\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilece\u011fini belirtiyor. Ayr\u0131ca Ba\u015fbakan Viktor Orb\u00e1n\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6revden ayr\u0131lmas\u0131 ve TISZA partisinin Meclis\u2019te salt \u00e7o\u011funluk (tek ba\u015f\u0131na h\u00fck\u00fcmet kuracak sandalye say\u0131s\u0131) elde etmesini i\u00e7eren bir senaryoya da at\u0131f yap\u0131yorlar.<\/p>\n
Kur taraf\u0131nda, EUR\/HUF\u2019nin martta 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (fiyat\u0131n 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamas\u0131; uzun vadeli trend g\u00f6stergesi) \u00fczerinde kalamay\u0131nca d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc aktar\u0131yorlar. Ara dip seviyeyi 360 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck MACD g\u00f6stergesinin (iki hareketli ortalama fark\u0131ndan \u00fcretilen momentum g\u00f6stergesi) belirgin \u015fekilde negatif b\u00f6lgede oldu\u011funu, hen\u00fcz d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f sinyali vermedi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar. Bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi olursa \u015fubattaki 374 civar\u0131ndaki dip seviyenin \u201cdiren\u00e7\u201d (y\u00fckseli\u015fte sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilece\u011fini belirtiyorlar.<\/p>\n
360 seviyesi korunmazsa, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn 357 ve 353\u2019e do\u011fru s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar. Orta vadede EUR\/HUF i\u00e7in 340\u2013350 band\u0131n\u0131 hedefliyor; Macar devlet tahvili getirilerinin (tahvil faizi) ve faizlerin getiri e\u011frisi boyunca (vadeye g\u00f6re faizlerin da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131) gerilemesini, \u00f6zellikle uzun vadede daha belirgin bir s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma (farklar\u0131n azalmas\u0131) bekliyorlar.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum (fiyat hareketinin ivmesi) nedeniyle, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar kurdaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in EUR\/HUF sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu (belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Parite \u015fu s\u0131ralar 355 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, 350 veya 345 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike; opsiyonun hak fiyat\u0131) opsiyonlar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda uygun olabilir. Bu strateji d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kat\u0131lma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir; risk, \u00f6denen primle (opsiyon \u00fccreti) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m i\u00e7in ay\u0131 put spreadi (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle kurulan iki bacakl\u0131 opsiyon stratejisi) alternatif olabilir. Buna \u00f6rnek olarak, 352 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir put al\u0131p ayn\u0131 anda 347 gibi daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir put satmak verilir. Bu yap\u0131 ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr; ancak azami k\u00e2r\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar ve daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi i\u00e7in uygundur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
SocGen: MNB faizi %6,25\u2019te sabit bekleniyor; man\u015fet enflasyon s\u00fcrpriz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Jeopolitik\/petrol riskleri alan\u0131 daralt\u0131yor. EUR\/HUF\u2019da 360 kritik; k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 357-353, hedef 340-350. Put\/ay\u0131 spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45655","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45655","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45655"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45655\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45655"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45655"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45655"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}