ABD Enerji Bakan\u0131 Chris Wright, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran ile do\u011fru anla\u015fmay\u0131 yapmaya odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Wright, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n depolama kapasitesinin \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2019nin, ABD enerji \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine ihracat yasa\u011f\u0131 getirmeyi de\u011ferlendirmedi\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Wright, ABD\u2019nin Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa\u2019da \u201ctarihi\u201d anla\u015fmalar a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da ekledi. A\u00e7\u0131klamalar Sagar Dua taraf\u0131ndan aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yeni bir ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimali, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor ve sonucu \u201cya olur ya olmaz\u201d t\u00fcr\u00fc bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Anla\u015fma sa\u011flan\u0131rsa, resmi \u0130ran arz\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcnde 1,5 milyon varilin (barrel per day: g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcretim\/arz miktar\u0131) \u00fczerinde bir k\u0131sm\u0131 h\u0131zla piyasaya d\u00f6nebilir. Zaten hassas dengede olan piyasada bu durum, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131) art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Anla\u015fma \u00e7\u0131karsa, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklenebilir. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 depolama kapasitesi, petrol\u00fcn\u00fc h\u0131zl\u0131 satmaya zorlayabilir. Bu da piyasada arz fazlas\u0131 yarat\u0131p Brent petrol\u00fc 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen dip seviyelere yakla\u015ft\u0131rabilir. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem (derivative: fiyat\u0131 petrol gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak (hedge: zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak) amac\u0131yla sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put option: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almay\u0131 veya k\u0131sa pozisyon (short position: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) a\u00e7may\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler uzar ya da sonu\u00e7suz kal\u0131rsa, piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 yeniden mevcut s\u0131k\u0131 arz ko\u015fullar\u0131na d\u00f6ner. ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) son verileri, k\u00fcresel stoklar\u0131n (inventories: depolarda tutulan petrol miktar\u0131) be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da yeni arz beklentisi ortadan kalkarsa fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 destekleyebilir. Bu senaryoda, diplomatik ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131 mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa bu hareketleri k\u0131smen fiyatlam\u0131\u015f durumda. CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi (OVX: petrol fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) bu ay %15\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckseldi. Bu ortam, \u201cuzun straddle\u201d gibi volatilite stratejilerine (long straddle: ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gidece\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten yararlanma) daha uygun. Burada \u00f6nemli olan, fiyat\u0131n mevcut i\u015flem band\u0131n\u0131 net \u015fekilde k\u0131rmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2019nin kendi enerji ihracat\u0131n\u0131 yasaklamayacak olmas\u0131 da hesaba kat\u0131lmal\u0131; bu durum fiyatlar\u0131n ne kadar y\u00fckselebilece\u011fine bir tavan etkisi yapar. ABD \u00fcretimi, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fcnl\u00fck 13,3 milyon varillik rekor seviyelere yak\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini koruyor. Bu arz, olas\u0131 fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Bu da y\u00fckseli\u015f m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olsa bile, anla\u015fma a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 halinde olu\u015fabilecek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskine k\u0131yasla y\u00fckseli\u015f alan\u0131n\u0131n daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde kritik viraj: Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 ham petrolde sert oynakl\u0131k yaratabilir. Anla\u015fma 1,5 mb\/g arz\u0131 h\u0131zla d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fcp fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir; \u00e7\u0131kmazsa stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fi destekler; OVX t\u0131rman\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45652","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45652","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45652"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45652\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45652"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45652"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45652"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}