NZD\/USD, iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan 0,5900 seviyesinin alt\u0131na geriledi ve sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 0,5890 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Parite, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman talebindeki art\u0131\u015fla g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle zay\u0131flad\u0131. G\u00fcvenli liman talebi, belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha \u201cg\u00fcvenli\u201d g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc varl\u0131klara (ABD Dolar\u0131 gibi) y\u00f6nelmesi anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin tutumu, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ek ko\u015fullar olmadan kabul edilmeyece\u011fi \u015feklinde aktar\u0131ld\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131klamalar, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 kapsamayan bir anla\u015fman\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimal oldu\u011funu da g\u00f6sterdi. \u0130ran ise, ABD\u2019nin ablukay\u0131 kald\u0131rmas\u0131 ve sava\u015f\u0131n sona ermesi halinde H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nerirken, n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ertelendi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD\u2019de faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fi beklentisiyle de de\u011fer kazand\u0131. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini (federal funds hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131; bankalar\u0131n birbirine gecelik bor\u00e7 verme faizi i\u00e7in hedef) %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu, \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc kez \u201cfaizi pas ge\u00e7me\u201d anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda\u2019da ise Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) enflasyonu %2 hedefinin orta noktas\u0131na \u00e7ekmek i\u00e7in temkinli kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya da daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi, talebi so\u011futmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan ad\u0131mlar) de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi belirtiliyor. Piyasalar, ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fcksek gelen enflasyon verisi sonras\u0131 may\u0131sta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Enerji maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f nedeniyle ikinci \u00e7eyrekte fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131; \u00fclke i\u00e7i ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131, \u00c7in ekonomisi ve s\u00fct \u00fcr\u00fcnleri fiyatlar\u0131ndan etkilenir. Ayr\u0131ca genel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 ve ABD\u2019ye k\u0131yasla faiz farklar\u0131yla (iki \u00fclke faizleri aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131) birlikte hareket etme e\u011filimindedir.<\/p>\n
NZD\/USD\u2019de 0,5890 \u00e7evresindeki s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir tablo yarat\u0131yor. ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerindeki t\u0131kanma kaynakl\u0131 riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor ve pariteyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itiyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n piyasa, RBNZ\u2019nin gelecek ay faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
RBNZ\u2019nin \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funu (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutma veya art\u0131rma e\u011filimi) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc buluyoruz. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrek enflasyonunun %4,0 ile y\u00fcksek gelmesi, may\u0131sta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse zorunlu hale getiriyor. K\u00fcresel s\u00fct \u00fcr\u00fcnleri fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 izleyen Global Dairy Trade endeksinin \u015fubattan bu yana %5\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckselmesi de destekleyici bir unsur.<\/p>\n
Odak, yar\u0131nki Fed karar\u0131nda. Fed\u2019in faizi sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Piyasa bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde agresif faiz indirimi fiyatl\u0131yor ancak bu beklenti fazla iyimser olabilir. Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin bir sabit b\u0131rakma\u201d mesaj\u0131 (faizi de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden, s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fun s\u00fcrece\u011fini vurgulamak) bu beklentileri zay\u0131flatabilir ve dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131ran bir di\u011fer unsur \u00c7in\u2019den gelen g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veriler. Caixin \u0130malat PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50 \u00fcst\u00fc sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret eder) ikinci ay \u00fcst \u00fcste 52,0\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kalarak geni\u015fleme b\u00f6lgesini korudu. Yeni Zelanda ile ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olumlu veriler ile k\u00fcresel risk alg\u0131s\u0131ndaki bozulma aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, \u201cbeklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde, her iki y\u00f6nde sert harekete kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon stratejileri (\u00f6r. long straddle; ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte almak) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik riskler Dolar\u2019a g\u00fcvenli liman talebini art\u0131r\u0131nca NZD\/USD iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck rallinin ard\u0131ndan 0,5900 alt\u0131na indi. Fed \u015fahin sabit tutabilir; RBNZ may\u0131sta faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor. \u00c7in verileri oynakl\u0131k riski yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45648","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45648","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45648"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45648\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45648"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45648"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45648"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}