Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) faizi %0,75\u2019te sabit tutarken \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcyenin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy kullanmas\u0131, yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gereken derin bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu i\u00e7 anla\u015fmazl\u0131k ve Ba\u015fkan Ueda\u2019n\u0131n net y\u00f6nlendirme vermeyen (piyasan\u0131n gelece\u011fe dair beklentisini \u015fekillendiren \u201cileri y\u00f6nlendirme\u201d sunmayan) a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yen i\u00e7in belirgin bir belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor. Bu da, piyasan\u0131n bankan\u0131n bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamakta zorlanmas\u0131 nedeniyle kurda dalgalanman\u0131n artabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019un iki z\u0131t bask\u0131 aras\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: Enflasyon tahminlerini belirgin \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerken b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) son olarak %2,6 ile %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde. Bu tablo faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Ancak Brent petrol\u00fcn (k\u00fcresel petrol i\u00e7in referans fiyat) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretmesi, y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerinin ekonomi \u00fczerinde olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131 zarar riskini de art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev ara\u00e7 (opsiyon ve vadeli gibi fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu ortam, yende \u201cvolatilite sat\u0131n alma\u201dy\u0131 (kurun y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde dalgalanma art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleme) cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor; \u00f6rne\u011fin USD\/JPY\u2019de straddle veya strangle ile. Straddle, ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike) al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu almakt\u0131r; kur hangi y\u00f6ne g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket ederse etsin kazan\u00e7 ama\u00e7lar. Strangle ise al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla alarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket bekler. Bankan\u0131n karars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131, enflasyon mu yoksa b\u00fcy\u00fcme kayg\u0131lar\u0131 m\u0131 a\u011f\u0131r basaca\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re kurda iki y\u00f6ne de sert hareket ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Yen opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 beklenir; bu, belirsizli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131na giderken piyasa 17 baz puanl\u0131k (0,17 puan) bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; bu, ad\u0131m beklendi\u011fini ama kesin g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, 2006\u2019da s\u0131f\u0131r faiz politikas\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f gibi, BoJ\u2019un y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn zor tahmin edildi\u011fi d\u00f6nemleri hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te gelecek enflasyon ve GSYH (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) verileri, bankan\u0131n bir sonraki karar\u0131na dair kritik i\u015faretler olacak.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik tablo, \u00f6zellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 etraf\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler, Japon para politikas\u0131 i\u00e7in ba\u015fl\u0131ca d\u0131\u015f de\u011fi\u015fken haline geldi. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn %90\u2019dan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan ithal etmesi nedeniyle, arzda bir kesinti ekonomiyi ciddi bi\u00e7imde etkileyebilir ve BoJ\u2019u faizleri sabit tutmaya zorlayabilir. Bu nedenle yen t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131, petrol fiyat hareketleri ve b\u00f6lge kaynakl\u0131 haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131yla birlikte izlenmeli.<\/p>\n
BoJ faizi %0,75\u2019te sabit tuttu; \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcye art\u0131\u015f dedi: \u00e7atlak b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Ueda\u2019n\u0131n belirsiz mesaj\u0131 yen volatilitesini art\u0131rabilir. Enflasyon hedef \u00fcst\u00fc, b\u00fcy\u00fcme zay\u0131f; Haziran\u2019da 17 bp fiyatlan\u0131yor. Straddle\/strangle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Petrol ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45645","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45645","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45645"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45645\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45645"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45645"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45645"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}