EUR\/CAD ikinci g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste geriledi ve Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa saatlerinde 1,5960 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek 1,5950\u2019ye yak\u0131n seyretti. Euro, daha g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara (belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde tercih edilen; \u00f6rne\u011fin devlet tahvilleri gibi) talep artarken ve ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri t\u0131kanm\u0131\u015f halde kal\u0131rken zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131s\u0131nda mevduat faizini (bankalar\u0131n ECB\u2019de tuttuklar\u0131 fazla likiditeye uygulanan faiz) %2,0\u2019de sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; bu oran ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Haziran\u2019dan bu yana ayn\u0131 seviyede. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 belirsizlik nedeniyle daha fazla veri g\u00f6rmeyi bekleyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Paritedeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Kanada Dolar\u0131 da riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015fla (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan uzakla\u015fmas\u0131) zay\u0131flad\u0131. Ancak Kanada, ABD\u2019ye en b\u00fcy\u00fck ham petrol tedarik\u00e7ilerinden biri oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in CAD, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015ften destek bulabilir.<\/p>\n
WTI (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 96,90 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Fiyatlar, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle (Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131) y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kapanmay\u0131 sonland\u0131rma teklifini kabul etmesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmedi. ABD D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Marco Rubio da olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fman\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 da i\u00e7ermesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc politika faizini %2,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Piyasada, bankan\u0131n ileride faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyali verip vermeyece\u011fi ya da y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda faizi sabit tutup tutmayaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 var.<\/p>\n
ECB ile BoC\u2019nin para politikas\u0131 rotalar\u0131 (faizlerin izledi\u011fi y\u00f6n) ge\u00e7en y\u0131ldan bu yana z\u0131t y\u00f6nde ilerledi. ECB bir s\u00fcre faizi %2,0\u2019de tutsa da, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmemesi) nedeniyle faizi mevcut %2,75\u2019e kadar y\u00fckseltti. BoC ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve enflasyonun %1,9\u2019a gerilemesiyle faizini %2,25\u2019ten %1,75\u2019e indirdi.<\/p>\n
Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekleyen jeopolitik risk primi (riskler nedeniyle fiyata eklenen \u201cek getiri\u201d) tamamen ortadan kalkt\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 krizi 2026 ba\u015f\u0131nda \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fc ve WTI ham petrol fiyat\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 96 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki seviyelerden daha dengeli 78 dolar band\u0131na geriledi. Bu durum, emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 (de\u011ferinde emtia fiyatlar\u0131 etkili olan) Kanada para birimi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir destek unsurunu zay\u0131flatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, 2025\u2019te man\u015fetlerle sert hareket eden piyasaya k\u0131yasla daha net ve temellere dayal\u0131 (faiz, b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon gibi verilere ba\u011fl\u0131) bir tablo olu\u015fturuyor. EUR\/CAD opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) kriz d\u00f6nemindeki zirvesinden %30\u2019dan fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu da istikrar s\u00fcrerse, prim toplamak i\u00e7in opsiyon satmaya dayal\u0131 stratejilerin (opsiyon primi: opsiyonu alan\u0131n \u00f6dedi\u011fi bedel; \u00f6rnek strateji: k\u0131sa strangle\u2014farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu satmak) daha uygun olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/CAD ikinci g\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte, 1,5960 civar\u0131nda. G\u00fcvenli liman talebi Euro\u2019yu bask\u0131larken ECB faiz sabit, BoC karar\u0131 bekleniyor. Petrol dalgalanmas\u0131 CAD\u2019\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destekliyor; oynakl\u0131k geriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45643","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45643","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45643"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45643\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45643"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45643"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45643"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}