Alt\u0131n, Avrupa sabah saatlerinde 4.630 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu; Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine yak\u0131nd\u0131. G\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD Dolar\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131 bask\u0131larken, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha az **\u015fahin** (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na daha az e\u011filimli) olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n, temsilci Steve Witkoff ve Jared Kushner\u2019\u0131n Pakistan\u2019a planlanan ziyaretini iptal etmesinin ard\u0131ndan diplomaside belirsizlik artt\u0131. \u0130ran, sava\u015f bitene ve K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclene kadar n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri erteleyen bir teklif g\u00f6nderdi. Haberlere g\u00f6re Trump, teklifin n\u00fckleer konular\u0131 kapsamamas\u0131ndan memnun de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 (Basra K\u00f6rfezi \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131; k\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) etraf\u0131ndaki gerilim, rezerv para (\u00fclkelerin d\u00f6viz rezervlerinde tuttu\u011fu g\u00fcvenli para birimi) olarak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talebi destekledi ve alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Dolar\u2019daki y\u00fckseli\u015f, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flayacak iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck FOMC (Fed\u2019in faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 veren kurulu) toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde de\u011fi\u015fen faiz beklentileriyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
CME Group FedWatch Tool (vadeli i\u015flem fiyatlar\u0131ndan Fed faiz beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) verilerine g\u00f6re yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, y\u0131l sonuna kadar ABD\u2019de faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %35 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Piyasalar, politika sinyalleri i\u00e7in Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 izleyecek.<\/p>\n
Teknik seviyelerde 4.655 dolar civar\u0131 bant deste\u011fi ve 4 saatlik grafikte 200 periyotluk SMA (Basit Hareketli Ortalama; belirli d\u00f6nem fiyat ortalamas\u0131) olan 4.723,13 dolar direnci \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi; fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m durumunu \u00f6l\u00e7er) 41 civar\u0131nda. MACD (Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama-Iraksama; trend\/momentum g\u00f6stergesi) negatif b\u00f6lgede ve \u00e7izgisi sinyal \u00e7izgisinin alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki piyasa g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde, alt\u0131n 4.630 dolar civar\u0131nda; ABD-\u0130ran gerilimiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar\u0131n bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131ndayd\u0131. Alt\u0131na destek veren ana unsur, Fed\u2019in daha az \u015fahin olaca\u011f\u0131 umuduydu. Bu durum, jeopolitik risk ile para politikas\u0131 beklentileri aras\u0131nda hassas bir denge olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn tablo belirgin bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015fti; Fed\u2019in duru\u015fu art\u0131k belirsiz de\u011fil. Piyasa, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in gev\u015feme (faiz indirimleri) yerine s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131) olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatl\u0131yor. CME FedWatch Tool, 2026\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 y\u00fczde puan) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse %60 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor; bu, 2025\u2019te g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz %35\u2019lik indirim olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n tersine bir tablo.<\/p>\n
Bu politika de\u011fi\u015fimi, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonla besleniyor. Son T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI; t\u00fcketici sepetindeki fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7er) raporu, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %3,1\u2019de sabit kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu seviye Fed\u2019in hedefinin \u00fczerinde. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,0\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131nda seyretmesi, merkez bankas\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131 politikay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme alan\u0131 veriyor. Bu temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekliyor ve alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde belirgin bask\u0131 kuruyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki do\u011frudan ABD-\u0130ran diplomatik gerilimi azalsa da, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki son deniz tatbikatlar\u0131n\u0131n (askeri e\u011fitim faaliyetleri) g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi gibi Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da temel riskler s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ancak bu riskler, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemde oldu\u011fu kadar alt\u0131na \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte tercih edilen varl\u0131k) talebi getirmiyor. Piyasa bunun yerine dolar\u0131n sundu\u011fu daha y\u00fcksek getiriye (faiz\/ta\u015f\u0131ma getirisi) odaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle alt\u0131n, 2025 zirvelerinden geri \u00e7ekilerek \u015fu anda 4.150 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u015eahin Fed ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ortam\u0131nda, 4.200 dolar b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fler sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in, 4.100 dolar deste\u011finin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike; opsiyonun al\u0131m-sat\u0131m fiyat\u0131) put opsiyonlar\u0131 (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak Fed\u2019den beklenmedik g\u00fcvercin (faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n) bir sinyal ya da jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerde sert bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f, h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ters hareket yaratabilir. Bu riske kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak (hedge; zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak) i\u00e7in, 4.250 dolar direncinin \u00fczerinde \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (mevcut fiyata g\u00f6re k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7memi\u015f) call opsiyonlar\u0131 (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) al\u0131nabilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, ana d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi korunurken olas\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz y\u00fckseli\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda y\u00f6n aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: 4.630 dolarda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar bask\u0131s\u0131, Fed\u2019in daha az \u015fahinle\u015fme umuduyla dengeleniyor. 2026\u2019da tablo tersine: \u015fahin Fed, 4.150; 4.200 sat\u0131\u015f, opsiyonla hedge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45640","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45640","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45640"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45640\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45640"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45640"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45640"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}