G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,5 d\u00fc\u015ferek ons ba\u015f\u0131na (troy ons: de\u011ferli metaller i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan standart a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fc) 74,40 dolar civar\u0131na geriledi ve 74,50 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte, ABD\u2013\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n enerji maliyetlerini y\u00fckseltmesi ve enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131 etkili oldu.<\/p>\n
Enflasyondaki bu sert art\u0131\u015f, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n para politikas\u0131n\u0131 (faiz ve likidite ko\u015fullar\u0131) daha uzun s\u00fcre s\u0131k\u0131 tutabilece\u011fi beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019ye iletti\u011fi yeni mesaj\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ate\u015fkes ihtimalini de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n
Haberlere g\u00f6re \u0130ran, Pakistan \u00fczerinden ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 ileterek; ABD\u2019nin deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131rmas\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den ge\u00e7i\u015f kurallar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi ve gelecekte askeri eylem olmayaca\u011f\u0131na dair g\u00fcvence vermesi halinde \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n durabilece\u011fini bildirdi. ABD\u2019li bir yetkili Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n teklifi reddetti\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken, \u0130ranl\u0131 kaynaklar Tahran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ve K\u00f6rfez\u2019de gemi ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeden g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeyece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izleniyor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc politika faizi hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %3,50\u2013%3,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu, \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u201cfaizi de\u011fi\u015ftirmeme\u201d karar\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc faizi %0,75\u2019te b\u0131rakmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) ise Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc mevduat faizini (bankalar\u0131n ECB\u2019de tuttuklar\u0131 paraya uygulanan faiz) %2,0 seviyesinde korumas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 74,50 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inerken, piyasan\u0131n jeopolitik riskten \u00e7ok sava\u015f kaynakl\u0131 enflasyona tepki verdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. S\u00fcren ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n\u2014\u00f6zellikle Fed\u2019in\u2014artan fiyatlarla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu durum, faiz getirisi olmayan (faiz \u00f6demeyen) varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f dahil, do\u011frudan bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in bu \u00c7ar\u015famba %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu beklenti, son ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE: t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisinin enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,1\u2019e h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Bu \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015f (enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faiz e\u011filimi), faiz getiren ara\u00e7lara k\u0131yasla g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ta\u015f\u0131man\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini (faiz geliri ka\u00e7\u0131rma maliyeti) y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Bu tablo, y\u00fcksek nominal faizin (etiket faiz oran\u0131) de\u011ferli metalleri bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6nemlerle benzerlik ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda XAG\/USD\u2019de (g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\/dolar paritesi) zay\u0131flama ihtimaline g\u00f6re pozisyon almak g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. May\u0131s ve Haziran vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak (put opsiyonu: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131ran s\u00f6zle\u015fme) olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir y\u00f6ntemdir. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon (futures\u2019ta short: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynama) ise, \u00f6nemli teknik destek seviyelerinin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lma bekleyenler i\u00e7in daha do\u011frudan bir se\u00e7enek olabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa verileri bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini yans\u0131t\u0131yor: G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) son bir haftada belirgin artt\u0131. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korunmaya (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta) daha fazla talep g\u00f6sterdi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Yani bir\u00e7ok ki\u015fi, fiyat\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 bir dip (fiyat\u0131n tutundu\u011fu seviye) bulmadan \u00f6nce daha da gerileyebilece\u011fine haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn alt\u0131na g\u00f6re zay\u0131f seyrine dikkat edilmeli. Alt\u0131n\/g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f rasyosu (1 ons alt\u0131n almak i\u00e7in ka\u00e7 ons g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steren oran) son d\u00f6nemde 90:1\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz 85:1 ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu, mevcut ortamda alt\u0131n\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebinin g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fe g\u00f6re daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ise yava\u015flayan sanayi talebine (end\u00fcstride kullan\u0131m talebi) ili\u015fkin kayg\u0131lardan olumsuz etkilendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131 g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk yarat\u0131yor: Hem elde tutma maliyetini art\u0131r\u0131yor hem de sanayi faaliyetini zay\u0131flatma riski ta\u015f\u0131yor. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f talebinin yar\u0131dan fazlas\u0131 sanayi kullan\u0131m\u0131ndan geldi\u011fi i\u00e7in, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi ekonomik yava\u015flama, olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Bu sanayi kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131, 2025\u2019te de g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f performans\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan ba\u015fl\u0131klardan biriydi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f: G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f Asya\u2019da %1,5 kay\u0131pla 74,40 dolara inerken, ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin tetikledi\u011fi enflasyon Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi; opsiyonlarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korunma artt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45619","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45619","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45619"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45619\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45619"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45619"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45619"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}