USD\/CAD, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan toparland\u0131. 12 Mart\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye olan 1,3600 alt\u0131ndan gelen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepkiyle 1,3630 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n ise birbirine z\u0131t etkenler nedeniyle k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine dair \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyaller, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n s\u0131\u011f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelim) talebiyle ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. Haberlere g\u00f6re \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve sava\u015f\u0131n bitirilmesine y\u00f6nelik yeni bir teklif iletti; n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ise sonraya b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6nerildi.<\/p>\n
Wall Street Journal, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n iyi niyetle hareket etti\u011fine veya n\u00fckleer zenginle\u015ftirmenin (uranyumun enerji\/askeri ama\u00e7larla daha y\u00fcksek safl\u0131\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131) sona erdirilmesi talebini kabul edece\u011fine \u015f\u00fcpheyle yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131. Ayn\u0131 zamanda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131kta aksamaya d\u00f6n\u00fck endi\u015feler ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tuttu.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyerek USD\/CAD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, yakla\u015fan merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde temkinli kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) karar\u0131n\u0131 \u00c7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. Ard\u0131ndan ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) iki g\u00fcn s\u00fcren FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n sonucu gelecek. Piyasalar, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n enflasyon (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131p art\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirip de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fini izliyor. Bu da USD\/CAD\u2019de bir sonraki hareketi belirleyebilir.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD, 28 Nisan 2026 itibar\u0131yla yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenerek 1,3750 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu seyir, 2025\u2019te ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen belirsizli\u011fi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. O d\u00f6nemde birbirini dengeleyen etkenler pariteyi band i\u00e7inde tutmu\u015ftu; benzer bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm geri d\u00f6nebilir.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol kritik olmaya devam ediyor. WTI \u015fu anda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor; bu seviye genelde Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekler. 2025\u2019teki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma kaynakl\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n aksine, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fcksek fiyatlar daha \u00e7ok arz disiplininin (\u00fcretimin kontroll\u00fc tutulmas\u0131) s\u00fcrmesi ve istikrarl\u0131 k\u00fcresel talep nedeniyle. Bu durum Kanada dolar\u0131na taban sa\u011flasa da ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi tek ba\u015f\u0131na getirmeyebilir.<\/p>\n
Ana etken, BoC ile Fed aras\u0131ndaki belirgin \u201cpolitika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u201d (faiz ve para politikas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131). Kanada\u2019da enflasyonun 2,5% seviyesine gerilemesiyle BoC yaz aylar\u0131na do\u011fru faiz indirimi ihtimalini daha a\u00e7\u0131k konu\u015fuyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Fed, ABD\u2019de enflasyon verisinin beklentiden y\u00fcksek gelerek 3,4% olmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu koruyor; faiz indirimi beklentileri \u00f6teleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7eki\u015fme, USD\/CAD \u201copsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen kur dalgalanmas\u0131) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle t\u00fcrev (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7) i\u015flemi yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, tek y\u00f6ne basit pozisyon almak yerine iki y\u00f6nde de sert harekete kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201cuzun straddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket beklemek) bu amaca hizmet eder. Piyasa, ekonomik verilerdeki ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n desteklemedi\u011fi bir sakinli\u011fi fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u00fc\u00e7 ay vadeli opsiyonlarda pozisyon almak, bir sonraki merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 dalgas\u0131n\u0131n etkisini yakalamak i\u00e7in daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. 1,3800 seviyesinin kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, ABD dolar\u0131nda ilave g\u00fc\u00e7lenme sinyali say\u0131labilir. Bu direncin (y\u00fckseli\u015fi zorla\u015ft\u0131ran seviye) a\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131 ve Fed\u2019den \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimi\/s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n gev\u015femesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde) mesajlar gelmesi halinde parite 1,3650 \u201cdestek\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunma seviyesi) b\u00f6lgesine yeniden \u00e7ekilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CAD 1,3600\u2019den tepkiyle toparlansa da y\u00f6n belirsiz: \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 risk dolar\u0131 desteklerken, 85$ \u00fczeri petrol CAD\u2019\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. BoC-Fed ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k ve 1,3800\/1,3650 seviyeleri kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45614","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45614","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45614"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45614\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45614"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45614"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45614"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}