Japonya Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, ekonominin \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 \u015fekilde toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki ivmenin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, ancak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde temkinli olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ekonomi Bakan\u0131 Minoru Kiuchi ise Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) %2 enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) hedefine ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in h\u00fck\u00fcmetle ileti\u015fimini ve politika e\u015fg\u00fcd\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc (uyumlu hareket etmesini) art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi.<\/p>\n
Japonya, Asya Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131 ve ASEAN Plus toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Asya \u00fclkeleriyle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6viz takas\u0131 (swap: \u00fclkelerin belirli ko\u015fullarla birbirine d\u00f6viz likiditesi sa\u011flamas\u0131) anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmeyi planl\u0131yor. Yetkililer, ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki (futures: gelecekteki bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) sert hareketlerin d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131n\u0131 etkiledi\u011fini, gerekirse kararl\u0131 ad\u0131m atmaya haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Japonya, ABD ile yak\u0131n i\u015f birli\u011fi yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve gerekirse ad\u0131m ataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Yetkililer piyasalar\u0131 7\/24 izlediklerini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Haberin yaz\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada USD\/JPY %0,01 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 159,40 seviyesindeydi. Yen\u2019in de\u011feri; Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ekonomik performans\u0131, BoJ politikas\u0131, Japonya ile ABD tahvil getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark (getiri fark\u0131: iki \u00fclkenin faiz\/bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti aras\u0131ndaki fark) ve piyasan\u0131n risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk almaya iste\u011fi) ile yak\u0131ndan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131.<\/p>\n
BoJ zaman zaman d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahalede (piyasadan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yaparak kuru etkileme) bulundu; genelde yenin de\u011fer kaybetmesini sa\u011flamak amac\u0131yla. 2013-2024 d\u00f6nemindeki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131 (ultra-loose: \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ve yo\u011fun parasal destek) yenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131na katk\u0131 verirken, 2024\u2019teki kademeli geri \u00e7ekilme (unwind: gev\u015fekli\u011fin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131) bir miktar destek sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2013Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi fark\u0131 son 10 y\u0131lda a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131 ve dolar\u0131n yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini destekledi. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 gev\u015fek politikadan uzakla\u015fmas\u0131 ve di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirmesiyle bu fark daral\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin 162,50\u2019ye t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla, 2025\u2019te kur 159,40 civar\u0131ndayken Japon yetkililerden gelen uyar\u0131lar art\u0131k \u00e7ok daha acil. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u201ckararl\u0131 ad\u0131m\u201d vurgusu, bu seviyelerde do\u011frudan d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi riskini \u00e7ok y\u00fckseltiyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n USD\/JPY\u2019de uzun pozisyon (long: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynayan pozisyon) ta\u015f\u0131rken temkinli olmas\u0131 ve paritede ani, sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyonlar\u0131 (options: belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Temel sorun, faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fck fark. BoJ 2024\u2019te politika de\u011fi\u015fimine ba\u015flasa da fark yava\u015f kapan\u0131yor. ABD\u2019de Fed politika faizi (Fed funds rate: bankalar aras\u0131 gecelik hedef faiz) %4,50\u2019de kal\u0131rken, BoJ politika faizi yaln\u0131zca %0,25 seviyesinde. Bu durum, \u201cta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemi\u201dni (carry trade: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma) dolar lehine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutuyor. Bu bask\u0131 yeni zay\u0131flatmaya devam ediyor ve BoJ daha h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyali verene kadar s\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, BoJ\u2019un piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011finden erken ad\u0131m atmak zorunda kalabilece\u011fine dair i\u015faretler var. \u0130lkbahardaki \u201cshunto\u201d \u00fccret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde ortalama %4,5 zam sa\u011fland\u0131; bu, \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u0131l oldu. Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (core inflation: enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) son alt\u0131 ayd\u0131r %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha h\u0131zl\u0131 normale d\u00f6nd\u00fcrme (normalle\u015fme: faizleri ve destekleri ola\u011fan d\u00fczeye \u00e7ekme) bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu iki z\u0131t unsur\u2014m\u00fcdahale riski ve geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131\u2014belirsizli\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor ve y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k (volatility: fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert dalgalanmas\u0131) d\u00f6nemine i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasa, carry trade kaynakl\u0131 kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015f ile m\u00fcdahale halinde 3-5 yenlik h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riski aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu ortam, oynakl\u0131\u011fa dayal\u0131 t\u00fcrev stratejiler (derivative strategies: opsiyon gibi ara\u00e7larla kur hareketinden yararlanma) i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli olabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin USD\/JPY\u2019de straddle veya strangle (iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyon \u043a\u043e\u043c\u0431\u0438\u043d\u0430syonlar\u0131) almak gibi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler Tokyo\u2019da: Japonya, BoJ\u2019a %2 hedefi i\u00e7in daha s\u0131k\u0131 e\u015fg\u00fcd\u00fcm \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yaparken swaplar\u0131 g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7iriyor. USD\/JPY 159,40\u2019ta; carry trade bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrerken m\u00fcdahale riski ve oynakl\u0131k art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45611","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45611","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45611"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45611\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45611"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45611"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45611"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}