Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k BRC Ma\u011faza Fiyat Endeksi Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1 y\u00fckseldi. Beklenti %1,5\u2019ti; sonu\u00e7 0,5 y\u00fczde puan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck geldi.<\/p>\n
Nisan ay\u0131na ait son Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ma\u011faza fiyat verisi, enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) tahminimizden \u00e7ok daha h\u0131zl\u0131 so\u011fudu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor: Beklenen %1,5 yerine %1 geldi. Bu, t\u00fcketici fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (BoE) faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n durmas\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e veriyor. Bu tablo, gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131n\u0131 (faiz indirimi gibi ekonomiyi destekleyen ad\u0131mlar) d\u00fcnden daha yak\u0131n bir ihtimal haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki (gelecekteki faiz oran\u0131na g\u00f6re fiyatlanan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmeliyiz; piyasa, BoE\u2019nin bu yaz faiz indirebilece\u011fi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla fiyatlayacakt\u0131r. Gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131 (OIS: faiz beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan, gecelik faiz endeksine dayal\u0131 faiz takas\u0131) zaten bu kaymay\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor; \u015fimdi A\u011fustos toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar indirimin %50\u2019den y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131kla gelebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu oran ge\u00e7en haftaya g\u00f6re belirgin y\u00fckseldi. SONIA vadeli faiz e\u011frisinin (SONIA: \u0130ngiltere\u2019de gecelik faiz g\u00f6stergesi; vadeli e\u011fri: piyasadaki ileri tarihli faiz beklentilerinin \u00e7izgisi) daha da yatayla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre kalaca\u011f\u0131na oynuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u0130ngiliz sterlini \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir. GBP\/USD paritesinde (sterlin\/dolar kuru) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz; daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck UK faiz beklentisi paray\u0131 elde tutmay\u0131 daha az cazip k\u0131lar. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte, 2025\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde zay\u0131f enflasyon verisinin, sterlinin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan \u00f6nce benzer bir etki yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, daha ucuz bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti UK hisseleri i\u00e7in destekleyici olabilir. FTSE 100 endeksinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fme) daha cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizler genelde \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve hisse de\u011ferlemelerini destekler. UK volatilite endeksi VFTSE\u2019nin (piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 g\u00f6steren endeks) y\u0131ll\u0131k dip seviyelere yak\u0131n olmas\u0131, bu olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fe y\u00f6nelik korunma\/kat\u0131l\u0131m maliyetini g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutuyor.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcrpriz dezenflasyon: UK BRC ma\u011faza fiyatlar\u0131 Nisan\u2019da %1\u2019de kald\u0131 (beklenti %1,5). BoE\u2019nin yaz\u0131n faiz indirimi ihtimali g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; SONIA e\u011frisi yatayla\u015fabilir, sterlin bask\u0131lanabilir, FTSE 100\u2019e destek gelebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45609","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45609","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45609"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45609\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45609"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45609"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45609"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}