ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ve ulusal g\u00fcvenlik ekibi, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7ma ve sava\u015f\u0131 bitirme teklifini g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Reuters\u2019in pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc haberine g\u00f6re, sava\u015f iki ayd\u0131r s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Beyaz Saray S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc Karoline Leavitt, Trump\u2019\u0131n teklifi kabul edip etmeyece\u011finin net olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, Trump\u2019\u0131n \u201ctavizsiz\u201d temel taleplerinin de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Konunun ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Trump\u2019\u0131n bu konuda a\u00e7\u0131klama yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol\u00fc, yaz\u0131 haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %1,35 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 94,65 dolard\u0131. (WTI: ABD\u2019de referans kabul edilen ham petrol fiyat\u0131.)<\/p>\n
ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki bu temas, petrol piyasas\u0131nda belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u0130ki ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan WTI 94,65 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; olumlu ya da olumsuz her haber fiyatlarda sert dalgalanma yaratabilir. Bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131) riskine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa son sekiz haftada fiyata belirgin bir \u201csava\u015f primi\u201d ekledi. (Sava\u015f primi: Arz kesintisi riski nedeniyle fiyat\u0131n normalin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131.) Bo\u011faz\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak g\u00fcvenilir bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrse, bu risk primi ortadan kalkaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in petrol sert d\u00fc\u015febilir. Bu, \u201chaberle sat\u201d (beklentiyle y\u00fckselip haber gelince sat\u0131\u015fla d\u00fc\u015fme) durumuna \u00f6rnek olabilir.<\/p>\n
2022\u2019de Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ilk d\u00f6neminde benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: \u0130lk \u015fokla fiyatlar s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015f, ard\u0131ndan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcrse bile aylar i\u00e7inde belirgin \u015fekilde geri \u00e7ekilmi\u015fti. Bu benzerlik, fiyatlar\u0131n buradan yaln\u0131zca y\u00fckselece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n riskli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131 de\u011fil; g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil petrol sevkiyat\u0131 buradan ge\u00e7iyor. Bu rakam, ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA: ABD\u2019nin resmi enerji veri kurumu) son verilerine g\u00f6re k\u00fcresel g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sine denk geliyor. Risk alt\u0131ndaki hacim b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in piyasadaki tepki de sert oluyor.<\/p>\n
Bu durum \u201cya bar\u0131\u015f ya sava\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi\u201d gibi iki olas\u0131 sonuca dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden kazanmaya y\u00f6nelik y\u00f6ntemler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (ileri tarihli standart s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00fczerine opsiyon almak, \u00f6rne\u011fin \u201cstraddle\u201d, oynakl\u0131ktaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan de\u011ferlendirme yolu olabilir. (Opsiyon: Belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131; straddle: Ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak fiyat\u0131n sert hareketine oynama.)<\/p>\n
Bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 bekleyenler i\u00e7in sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak, fiyat\u0131n 80 dolar\u0131n alt-\u00fcst band\u0131na sert gerilemesine kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 (k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck sermayeyle daha b\u00fcy\u00fck etki) bir bahis sunar. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in ise al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: fiyat y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolara do\u011fru olas\u0131 harekete y\u00f6nelik ara\u00e7t\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yaln\u0131zca Beyaz Saray\u2019dan gelen ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 izlemek yetmez. K\u00f6rfez\u2019de tanker hareketlerine dair uydu verileri ve petrol oynakl\u0131k endeksindeki (OVX: petrol fiyat\u0131ndaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) de\u011fi\u015fimler yak\u0131ndan takip edilmeli; endeks \u015fu anda y\u00fcksek seviyede. Bu g\u00f6stergeler, piyasan\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcne dair erken sinyal verebilir.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda bar\u0131\u015f sinyali petrol\u00fc sallad\u0131: Trump-\u0130ran temas\u0131 masada, WTI 94,65 dolarda. Sava\u015f primiyle oynakl\u0131k art\u0131yor; anla\u015fma gelirse sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131kta 100 dolara hareket m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45607","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45607","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45607"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45607\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45607"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45607"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45607"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}