Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.685 dolara geriledi. Piyasalar, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz karar\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmelerdeki de\u011fi\u015fim \u00f6ncesinde temkinliydi.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in faiz belirleyen kurulu FOMC\u2019nin (Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi), Aral\u0131k\u2019tan bu yana de\u011fi\u015fmeyen gecelik politika faizini %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na (faizin y\u00fckseltilmesi) dair ipu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 izleyecek.<\/p>\n
Powell\u2019\u0131n, Warsh\u2019\u0131n Haziran\u2019daki bir sonraki politika toplant\u0131s\u0131na zaman\u0131nda ba\u015fkanl\u0131k edecek \u015fekilde onaylanmas\u0131 halinde Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu\u2019nda kal\u0131p kalmayaca\u011f\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan takip ediliyor. \u201c\u015eahin\u201d (faizlerin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131 savunan) g\u00f6r\u00fclen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekleyip alt\u0131n gibi dolar cinsinden emtialar (ham madde \u00fcr\u00fcnleri) \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltti. Bu durum, enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) endi\u015felerini art\u0131r\u0131rken faiz indirimi alan\u0131n\u0131 daraltt\u0131. Alt\u0131n faiz getirisi sa\u011flamaz; bu nedenle faizler y\u00fcksekken talep zay\u0131flayabilir.<\/p>\n
CNBC, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ve g\u00fcvenlik ekibinin, ABD\u2019nin ablukay\u0131 kald\u0131rmas\u0131 ve sava\u015f\u0131n bitmesi halinde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7ma \u00f6nerisini g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi. Habere g\u00f6re bu ad\u0131m, Tahran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer hedeflerine ili\u015fkin m\u00fczakereleri erteleyebilir; teklifin kabul edilip edilmeyece\u011fi ise belirsiz.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131 en b\u00fcy\u00fck alt\u0131n tutucular\u0131 aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor; 2022\u2019de 1.136 ton, yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde al\u0131m yaparak y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda rekor k\u0131rd\u0131lar. Alt\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD Hazine tahvilleri (devletin bor\u00e7lanma senetleri) ve riskli varl\u0131klar\u0131n ters y\u00f6n\u00fcnde hareket eder; jeopolitik riskler, durgunluk (ekonomik daralma) endi\u015feleri, faizler ve dolar\u0131n seyrinden etkilenir.<\/p>\n
Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n temkinli duru\u015fuyla alt\u0131n\u0131n 2.450 dolar civar\u0131na s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Fed\u2019in \u201cana\u201d politika faizini (ekonomideki en temel referans faiz) %4,00\u2013%4,25 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, \u00f6zellikle enflasyon konusunda, gelecekteki politika y\u00f6n\u00fcne ili\u015fkin her ipucunda olacak.<\/p>\n
Mart ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE (CPI: T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) verisinin enflasyonun %2,8\u2019de inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in hedefinin belirgin \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermesi nedeniyle yetkililerden \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir ton bekliyoruz. Faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden herhangi bir mesaj, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Getiri sa\u011flamayan bir varl\u0131k olan alt\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu durum cazibeyi azalt\u0131r ve fiyatlarda ilave d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n alt\u0131n, jeopolitik gerilimlerden destek bulmaya devam ediyor; \u00f6zellikle G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ndeki son deniz g\u00fcc\u00fc gerilimleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 2025\u2019teki b\u00f6lgesel alevlenmelerde de benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, belirsizlik \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f d\u00f6neminde tercih edilen varl\u0131k) talebini art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Fed\u2019in mesaj\u0131 sert olsa bile bu temel talep, alt\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131ndan gelen kal\u0131c\u0131 talebi de hesaba katmak gerekiyor; bu durum fiyatlar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel destek olu\u015fturuyor. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin 2026 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin son verilerine g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131 rezervlerine 250 ton daha ekledi. Bu, 2022\u2019den beri izlenen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc birikim e\u011filimini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (dayanak varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n fiyat\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu ortam, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sat\u0131n almay\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131ndan faydalanmay\u0131 hedeflemek) daha temkinli bir strateji haline getirebilir. Potansiyel \u201c\u015fahin\u201d Fed ile s\u00fcren g\u00fcvenli liman talebi, geni\u015f bir sonu\u00e7 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Opsiyonlar (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) kullan\u0131larak, \u00f6rne\u011fin straddle\/strangle (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) gibi yap\u0131larla, Fed a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 sonras\u0131 fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gitti\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fck harekette kazan\u00e7 hedeflenebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda kritik e\u015fik: XAU\/USD Asya\u2019da 4.685 dolara indi. G\u00f6zler Fed karar\u0131nda, Powell\u2019\u0131n mesaj\u0131nda. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi ve merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131 destek; \u015fahin ton dolar bask\u0131s\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45606","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45606","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45606"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45606\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45606"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45606"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45606"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}