USD\/JPY pazartesiyi 159,40 civar\u0131nda bitirdi ve cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcne g\u00f6re neredeyse de\u011fi\u015fmedi. 159,10-159,85 aras\u0131nda 75 piplik (kurda, d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc ondal\u0131kta \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck hareket) bir bantta seyretti ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc haftad\u0131r 160,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc politika faizini %0,75\u2019te tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Nisan ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi (piyasada fiyatlanan art\u0131\u015f) ay ba\u015f\u0131nda 18 baz puandan (faizin y\u00fczde 0,01\u2019lik k\u0131sm\u0131) neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131ra gerilerken, piyasa haziran i\u00e7in %1,00 seviyesini fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u2019nun (BoJ\u2019un b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon tahminlerini i\u00e7eren raporu) \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon tahminlerini %2,0 hedefinin \u00fczerine y\u00fckseltmesi bekleniyor. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Tokyo T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; taze g\u0131da hari\u00e7 enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,8 gelmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Japonya maliye bakan\u0131, yenin istikrara kavu\u015fturulmas\u0131 i\u00e7in yetkililerin \u201cserbest hareket alan\u0131\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. 160,00 seviyesi, \u201cyumu\u015fak m\u00fcdahale e\u015fi\u011fi\u201d (resm\u00ee d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131 yerine s\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirme ile piyasay\u0131 uyarma) olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) toplant\u0131 organ\u0131 olan Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi\u2019nin (FOMC) \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc faizleri %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu toplant\u0131, Ba\u015fkan Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n 15 May\u0131s\u2019ta bitecek g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi \u00f6ncesindeki son toplant\u0131s\u0131 ve Ekonomik Tahminler \u00d6zeti (faiz, b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon projeksiyonlar\u0131) yay\u0131mlanmayacak.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de izlenecek veriler aras\u0131nda mart man\u015fet enflasyonunun (genel enflasyon) %3,3 olmas\u0131 ve 2025 4. \u00e7eyrek GSYH\u2019nin (ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck) %0,5\u2019e revize edilmesi yer al\u0131yor. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH (%2,2 beklenti) ve \u00e7ekirdek PCE (Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi, de\u011fi\u015fken kalemleri d\u0131\u015flayan t\u00fcketim enflasyonu) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,2 beklentisi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ISM imalat PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi, imalat faaliyetini \u00f6l\u00e7er) izlenecek.<\/p>\n
Senato Bankac\u0131l\u0131k Komitesi\u2019nin Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n adayl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc oylamas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u0130ran ate\u015fkesi konusundaki belirsizlik g\u00fcndemde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar 152,00 \u00fczeri kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 USD\/JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) satmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir; Fed veya BoJ\u2019dan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir politika de\u011fi\u015fimi olmadan 2025 zirvelerine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Japon \u00fccret verilerinin daha fazla enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131na i\u015faret etmesi halinde, yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine pozisyon almak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019i (put spread: iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyattan sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte kullanarak maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlama) daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. Z\u0131mni volatilite (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki m\u00fcdahale endi\u015felerine k\u0131yasla daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, bu da opsiyon stratejilerini g\u00f6rece ucuzlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 159,4\u2019te s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131; 160 alt\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc hafta. BoJ faizi sabit, enflasyon tahminleri\/Tokyo T\u00dcFE izlenecek. Fed de pas ge\u00e7ebilir. 160 \u201cyumu\u015fak m\u00fcdahale\u201d e\u015fi\u011fi; opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45600","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45600","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45600"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45600\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45600"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45600"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45600"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}