{"id":45597,"date":"2026-04-28T03:53:09","date_gmt":"2026-04-28T03:53:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/spx-mart-diplerinden-baslayan-yukselisini-korurken-olgun-bir-impuls-dalga-formasyonu-tamamlanmaya-yaklasiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-04-28T03:53:09","modified_gmt":"2026-04-28T03:53:09","slug":"spx-mart-diplerinden-baslayan-yukselisini-korurken-olgun-bir-impuls-dalga-formasyonu-tamamlanmaya-yaklasiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/spx-mart-diplerinden-baslayan-yukselisini-korurken-olgun-bir-impuls-dalga-formasyonu-tamamlanmaya-yaklasiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"SPX, Mart diplerinden ba\u015flayan y\u00fckseli\u015fini korurken, olgun bir impuls dalga formasyonu tamamlanmaya yakla\u015f\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

S&P 500 (SPX), mart ay\u0131ndaki dipten y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu hareket, Elliott Dalga teorisine g\u00f6re (fiyat\u0131n genelde 5 dalgal\u0131 bir itkiyle yukar\u0131 gitti\u011fini s\u00f6yleyen analiz y\u00f6ntemi) olgunla\u015fm\u0131\u015f bir **be\u015f dalgal\u0131 itki (impulse)** olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor. Mevcut a\u015fama **\u2018v\u2019 dalgas\u0131** olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da yap\u0131n\u0131n tamamlanmaya yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

**Fibonacci uzatma (extension)** seviyeleri (\u00f6nceki dalga boylar\u0131na g\u00f6re olas\u0131 hedef fiyatlar\u0131 hesaplayan oranlar) kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, olas\u0131 **\u2018v\u2019 dalgas\u0131 hedefi** 7.231. Bu hedef, \u2018v\u2019 dalgas\u0131n\u0131n \u2018i\u2019 dalgas\u0131n\u0131n uzunlu\u011funun **%61,8\u2019ine** ula\u015fmas\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131yor. Di\u011fer uzatma seviyeleri: **7.344** (uzunluklar\u0131n **%100 e\u015fitli\u011fi**) ve **7.525** (**%161,8**).<\/p>\n

Key Extension Targets To Watch<\/h3>\n

\u0130tki tamamland\u0131ktan sonra, t\u00fcm be\u015f dalgal\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fin **Fibonacci geri \u00e7ekilme (retracement)** seviyeleriyle (y\u00fckseli\u015fin ne kadar\u0131n\u0131n geri verilebilece\u011fini \u00f6l\u00e7en oranlar) bir d\u00fczeltme senaryosu anlat\u0131l\u0131yor. Tipik hareket en az **%38 geri \u00e7ekilme** oldu\u011fundan, zirvenin olu\u015faca\u011f\u0131 yere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak **6.900\u20137.000** band\u0131na do\u011fru bir gerileme anlam\u0131na gelebilir.<\/p>\n

Analiz ayr\u0131ca, yap\u0131 biterken **%2\u2013%5** civar\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na da de\u011finiyor. Yaz\u0131n\u0131n yazar\u0131 Alchemy Markets\u2019ten Zorrays Junaid; daha \u00f6nce DailyFX ve Elliott Wave Forecast\u2019e katk\u0131da bulunmu\u015f.<\/p>\n

S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn 30 Mart 2026 dibinden (en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeden) ba\u015flayan rallisi son a\u015famas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda **tepe olu\u015fumu** izleniyor; bu tepe, **%2\u2013%5** aras\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye yol a\u00e7abilir. Y\u00fckseli\u015f itkisi olgunla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a piyasa y\u00f6n\u00fcnde de\u011fi\u015fim olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Piyasan\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle, ilk hedef olan **7.231** seviyesine son bir hamle ihtimali var. VIX (S&P 500 i\u00e7in \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d; beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6sterir) \u015fu anda iki y\u0131l\u0131n diplerine yak\u0131n **13,5** civar\u0131nda. Bu ortamda **call opsiyonlar\u0131** (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle olas\u0131 son y\u00fckseli\u015fe kat\u0131lmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir. Ancak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k ayn\u0131 zamanda piyasada **rahatl\u0131k\/rehavet** sinyali verir; bu durum \u00e7o\u011fu zaman d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr.<\/p>\n

Positioning For A Potential Reversal<\/h3>\n

D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in izlenecek ana seviyeler **7.231** ve bunun \u00fcst\u00fcnde k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m olursa **7.344**. Mart 2026 enflasyon verisinin y\u0131ll\u0131k **%3,6** ile beklenti olan **%3,4**\u2019\u00fcn biraz \u00fczerinde gelmesi, ralliyi durdurabilecek bir tetikleyici olabilir. Bu, 2025 sonbahar\u0131nda s\u00fcrpriz enflasyon verisinin h\u0131zl\u0131 bir **%4 d\u00fczeltme** (k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ama belirgin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6neme benzer.<\/p>\n

Endeks bu hedeflere yakla\u015f\u0131rken yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 **put opsiyonu** (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almay\u0131 veya **bear call spread** kurmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bear call spread, ayn\u0131 vadede daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call sat\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call alarak (riskin s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisine g\u00f6re kurulan opsiyon stratejisidir. Beklenen geri \u00e7ekilme hedefi, mart dibinden ba\u015flayan t\u00fcm y\u00fckseli\u015fin standart bir geri \u00e7ekilmesine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen **6.900\u20137.000** b\u00f6lgesi.<\/p>\n

Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m hemen \u201ca\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazanmak i\u00e7in sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon) sinyali de\u011fil; daha \u00e7ok olas\u0131 bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe haz\u0131rl\u0131k. Son istihdam raporunda **275.000** yeni istihdam a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) faizleri h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde indirmesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor ve k\u0131sa vadeli tepe olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda diren\u00e7 seviyeleri test edilirken d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 kademeli art\u0131rmak daha dengeli bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S&P 500 mart dibinden be\u015finci dalgada; Elliott\u2019a g\u00f6re final yakla\u015f\u0131rken 7.231\u20137.344 hedefi masada. VIX 13,5 rehavet sinyali, olas\u0131 tepeyle %2\u2013%5 d\u00fczeltme ve 6.900\u20137.000 \u00e7ekilme bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45597","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45597","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45597"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45597\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45597"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45597"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45597"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}