USD\/CHF pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,15 y\u00fckseldi ve Kuzey Amerika seans\u0131nda ABD Dolar\u0131 g\u00fcn i\u00e7i diplerden toparlan\u0131rken 0,7854 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Parite diren\u00e7 yak\u0131n\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yor ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamaya (SMA: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki fiyatlar\u0131n ortalamas\u0131) 0,7860 seviyesinde yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafik n\u00f6tr ila d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimli. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sinyali veriyor ancak n\u00f6tr \u00e7izgiye yakla\u015f\u0131yor. 0,7860 \u00fczeri bir hareket, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019y\u0131 0,7881\u2019de g\u00fcndeme getirir; ard\u0131ndan 0,7900 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 0,7931 izlenir.<\/p>\n
Parite 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n 0,7843 alt\u0131na iner\u00adse 0,7800\u2019e do\u011fru gerileyebilir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da di\u011fer seviyeler 10 Mart g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dibi 0,7747 ve 0,7700 b\u00f6lgesi.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin para birimidir ve d\u00fcnyada en \u00e7ok i\u015flem g\u00f6ren ilk 10 para birimi aras\u0131ndad\u0131r; i\u015flem hacmi \u0130svi\u00e7re ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015far. 2011-2015 d\u00f6neminde CHF, euroya sabitlendi (peg\/sabit kur: kurun belirli bir seviyeye ba\u011flanmas\u0131); bu d\u00fczen bitti\u011finde CHF %20\u2019den fazla de\u011fer kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) y\u0131lda d\u00f6rt kez toplan\u0131r ve enflasyonu %2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda tutmay\u0131 hedefler. CHF \u00e7o\u011fu zaman euroyu yak\u0131ndan izler; baz\u0131 modeller EUR-CHF korelasyonunu (iki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n birlikte hareket derecesi) %90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde \u00f6l\u00e7er.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn tabloda belirleyici etken, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile SNB aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin politika faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) oldu. Parite 0,9150 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l beklenen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lma (bullish break: direncin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131) ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve devam etti. Bu hareket, SNB\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7lenen frang\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyonu s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in faiz indirimlerine gitmesiyle desteklendi.<\/p>\n
Son veriler bu ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor ve dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. ABD \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7) %2,8\u2019de kat\u0131 seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in Fed temkinli kal\u0131yor. \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonu ise %1,4 seviyesinde; bu da SNB\u2019ye daha fazla gev\u015feme (faiz indirimi) alan\u0131 veriyor. Bu temel fark, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CHF i\u00e7in daha olas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn yukar\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (vadeli\/opsiyon gibi fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 enstr\u00fcman) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu ortam, kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r. S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi yakalamak i\u00e7in 0,9250 hedefli kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 verdi\u011fi seviye) sahip al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Alternatif olarak, bo\u011fa call spread (bull call spread: bir call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek strike\u2019l\u0131 call satmak; maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr, kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar) giri\u015f maliyetini azalt\u0131rken hedefe do\u011fru hareketten yararlanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Ancak CHF\u2019nin \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk art\u0131nca para ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi varl\u0131k) \u00f6zelli\u011fi s\u00fcrekli bir risk unsuru. Jeopolitik gerilimlerde beklenmedik art\u0131\u015f veya k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131nda (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, g\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131p CHF\u2019yi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Bu riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in uzun (al\u0131\u015f) pozisyonlar koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla (protective put: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta) korunmal\u0131 veya net zarar-kes (stop-loss: belirlenen seviyede otomatik kapama) seviyeleri kullan\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Euro ile \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek korelasyon da izlenmesi gereken bir ba\u015fl\u0131k. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bir sonraki toplant\u0131da olas\u0131 faiz indirimini i\u015faret etmesi, euroda ek zay\u0131flamaya yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu durum, frang\u0131 da bask\u0131layarak USD\/CHF uzun pozisyonlar\u0131na ek destek verebilir ve mevcut y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CHF\u2019te kritik e\u015fik: 0,7860! Dolar toparlan\u0131rken parite diren\u00e7te s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131; 0,7881-0,7900-0,7931 hedefte. Fed-SNB faiz fark\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi destekliyor; risk: g\u00fcvenli liman CHF.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45595","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45595","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45595"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45595\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45595"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45595"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45595"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}