Yar\u0131 iletken endeksi (SOX) %50 y\u00fckseldi ve \u00fcst \u00fcste 18 g\u00fcn art\u0131da kapatt\u0131. 24 Nisan Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc RSI5 (5 g\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi) 98,7, RSI14 (14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi) 85,1 seviyesindeydi (0\u2013100 \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde). RSI, fiyat\u0131n son d\u00f6nemdeki y\u00fckseli\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en bir g\u00f6stergedir; y\u00fcksek de\u011ferler genelde \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\u201d (k\u0131sa vadede a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nma) anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n
RSI5, endeks tarihinde kaydedilen en y\u00fcksek seviyeydi. RSI14 ise yaln\u0131zca iki kez daha y\u00fckse\u011fe \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131: 1995 ve 2011.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 u\u00e7larla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in, RSI5\u2019in 95,0\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde ve RSI14\u2019\u00fcn 83,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu benzer durumlar baz al\u0131nd\u0131. 1994\u2019ten bu yana bu ko\u015ful \u00fc\u00e7 kez ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; ayr\u0131ca iki e\u015fikten yaln\u0131zca birinin a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 \u00f6rnek daha g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Toplam alt\u0131 \u00f6rnekte, hemen sonras\u0131ndaki ortalama hareket -%7 oldu (aral\u0131k: -%5 ile -%11). Orta vadeli ileri d\u00f6nem ortalama getiri %15\u2019ti (aral\u0131k: %5 ile %67); 1998 tek negatif \u00f6rnekti.<\/p>\n
12 ay sonunda ortalama getiri %8 oldu; aral\u0131k -%40 ile +%80, yine 1998 s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kald\u0131. 1998 hari\u00e7 tutuldu\u011funda, orta vadeli ve 12 ayl\u0131k ortalamalar s\u0131ras\u0131yla +%25 (%5\u2013%67) ve -%26 (-%39 ile -%2) oldu.<\/p>\n
Elliott Dalga say\u0131m\u0131 (piyasadaki y\u00fckseli\u015f ve d\u00fczeltmeleri \u201cdalgalar\u201d halinde s\u0131n\u0131flayan teknik analiz yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131) 9.700 \u00b1 200 seviyesinde bir geri \u00e7ekilme b\u00f6lgesi, ard\u0131ndan 13.000+ hedefine do\u011fru bir hareket \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ayr\u0131ca Nisan 2025 dibinden ba\u015flayan y\u00fckseli\u015fi bitiren daha sonraki bir d\u00f6ng\u00fc ve sonras\u0131nda yeni bir ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131na (uzun s\u00fcreli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi) ge\u00e7i\u015f tarif etti.<\/p>\n
SOX\u2019ta son d\u00f6nemdeki %50 s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7, ancak ayn\u0131 zamanda yorulma i\u015fareti olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Tarihi 18 g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015f serisi 5 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI\u2019\u0131 98,7 ile zirveye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Ge\u00e7en hafta sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00f6nemli oyuncular\u0131ndan gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc 2026 1\u00c7 bilan\u00e7olar\u0131na ra\u011fmen endeksin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc zorlamas\u0131, y\u00fckseli\u015fin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 uzad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
1994\u2019ten beri benzer a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 okumalar\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc alt\u0131 \u00f6rne\u011fe bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadede ortalama %7\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f izlenmi\u015f. Bu, sert ama k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli geri \u00e7ekilme deseninin y\u0131llar boyunca tekrarland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel aral\u0131k %5\u2013%11 oldu\u011fundan, yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem beklentileri i\u00e7in bir bant sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Dalga analizimiz de bunu destekliyor: Ana y\u00fckseli\u015f itkisinin tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u201cye\u015fil Dalga-4\u201d olarak etiketlenen d\u00fczeltme a\u015famas\u0131na girildi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. D\u00fczeltmenin 9.700 +\/- 200 band\u0131nda dip yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (dayanak varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n fiyat\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6r. opsiyon) i\u015flemi yapanlar\u0131n mevcut yakla\u015f\u0131k 10.450 seviyesinden geri \u00e7ekilmeye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Mart 2026 \u00c7ekirdek PCE enflasyon verisinin (enerji ve g\u0131da hari\u00e7 tutulmu\u015f t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; ABD\u2019de yak\u0131ndan izlenen enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) beklentiden s\u0131cak gelerek %3,1 a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 da r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirebilecek temel bir unsur. Put opsiyonu almak ya da put bor\u00e7 spreadi (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle kurulan, maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 opsiyon stratejisi) olu\u015fturmak, riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak bu harekete oynanabilecek y\u00f6ntemlerdir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, 13.000+ hedefi \u00f6ncesinde ge\u00e7ici bir \u201cs\u0131f\u0131rlanma\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 1998 hari\u00e7 tarihsel veriler, ilk geri \u00e7ekilmenin ard\u0131ndan endeksin orta vadede ortalama %25 y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da Dalga-4 d\u00fczeltmesinin biti\u015finin al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 yaratabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc call opsiyonlar\u0131 veya y\u00fckseli\u015f spreadleri (yukar\u0131 beklentiyle kurulan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli opsiyon kombinasyonlar\u0131) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
SOX %50 ralliyle 18 g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckseldi; RSI5 98,7 ile rekor, RSI14 85,1. Tarihsel a\u015f\u0131r\u0131l\u0131k sonras\u0131 ortalama %7 d\u00fczeltme, 9.700 band\u0131 hedef; ard\u0131ndan 13.000+. Opsiyonla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45593","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45593","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45593"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45593\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45593"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45593"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45593"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}