TD Securities, nisan ay\u0131ndaki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Fed\u2019in politika faizini (fed funds rate) %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Kurum, Ba\u015fkan Powell\u2019\u0131n bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131 konusunda net y\u00f6nlendirmeden ka\u00e7\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Notta, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n dengeli kald\u0131\u011f\u0131; man\u015fet enflasyonun ise \u0130ran ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 petrol \u015foku (petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ani s\u0131\u00e7rama) nedeniyle y\u00fckseldi\u011fi belirtiliyor. Belirsizlik y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in Komite\u2019nin \u201csab\u0131rl\u0131\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 (acele etmeden veri izleme) yinelemesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Rapora g\u00f6re ABD Adalet Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Powell hakk\u0131ndaki soru\u015fturmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc; bu durum, bu toplant\u0131n\u0131n Powell\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkan olarak son toplant\u0131s\u0131 olabilece\u011fi ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Notta ayr\u0131ca, Warsh onayland\u0131ktan sonra Powell\u2019\u0131n y\u00f6netim kurulu \u00fcyesi (governor) olarak devam edip etmeyece\u011finin Powell\u2019\u0131n kendi karar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Warsh\u2019\u0131n Senato\u2019daki oturumunun yak\u0131n vadeli politika konusunda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 netlik sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 belirsizlik nedeniyle, yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde hemen faiz indiriminin zor olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
TD Securities, Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl 2026\u2019ya kadar beklemede kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; ard\u0131ndan Mart 2027\u2019ye kadar toplam 75 baz puanl\u0131k (bps; 1 baz puan = %0,01) gev\u015feme (faiz indirimi) yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor. Buna g\u00f6re Eyl\u00fcl ve Aral\u0131k\u2019ta 50\u2019\u015fer baz puan ve Mart 2027\u2019de 25 baz puan indirimle faiz %3,00\u2019e inecek.<\/p>\n
Notta, tarife (g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi) ve petrol etkileri zay\u0131flad\u0131k\u00e7a \u00e7ekirdek\/temel enflasyonun (ge\u00e7ici oynak kalemlerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyon e\u011filimi) iyile\u015febilece\u011fi belirtiliyor. Ayr\u0131ca bu haftaki 1. \u00e7eyrek ECI verisinin (Employment Cost Index; i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyeti endeksi, \u00fccret ve yan hak maliyetlerini \u00f6l\u00e7er) i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyeti bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 izlemek i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir kontrol noktas\u0131 oldu\u011fu vurgulan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in politika faizini %3,50-%3,75\u2019te tutmas\u0131 beklendi\u011finden, k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerde k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli dengeli seyir \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 petrol \u015foku, \u015fubatta Brent petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yarak Fed\u2019i temkinli tutuyor. Bu tablo, Fed beklerken prim geliri (opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla al\u0131nan bedel) toplamak amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 beklentisini \u201csatmak\u201d) stratejilerine zemin haz\u0131rlayabilir; \u00f6rnek olarak SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerindeki haftal\u0131k\/ayl\u0131k opsiyonlar g\u00f6steriliyor. (SOFR: ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 repo faizine dayal\u0131 referans oran; faiz t\u00fcrevlerinde yayg\u0131n.)<\/p>\n
Ancak belirsizlik y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fundan bu sakin d\u00f6nem kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayabilir. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimde art\u0131\u015f ya da azalma, faizlerde ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda sert hareket yaratabilir. Bu nedenle yaz sonras\u0131na uzanan, \u00f6rne\u011fin eyl\u00fcl FOMC civar\u0131nda vadesi dolan daha uzun vadeli opsiyonlar, ani politika de\u011fi\u015fimine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge; olumsuz hareket riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlama) sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Eyl\u00fclde ba\u015flayabilecek faiz indirimleri i\u00e7in y\u0131l sonuna kadar toplam 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir patika \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130\u015flem taraf\u0131nda, bunu fiyatlamak isteyenler 2026 sonuna vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerini (futures; ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) tercih edebilir; \u00f6rnek olarak Aral\u0131k SOFR vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131 an\u0131l\u0131yor. Ama\u00e7, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc daha y\u00fcksek faiz seviyesini \u201ckilitlemek\u201d (ileri tarihe y\u00f6nelik fiyat\u0131 sabitlemek). Bu, petrol ve tarifelerin etkisi azal\u0131nca Fed\u2019in gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne (faiz indirim s\u00fcreci) d\u00f6nece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle uyumlu.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 dengeli g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ve enflasyon i\u00e7in risk say\u0131lm\u0131yor; son istihdam verilerinde ortalama 200 bin civar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f ve 1. \u00e7eyrek ECI\u2019da \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131nda yava\u015flama oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Bu da mevcut enflasyon s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ici olabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. Notta, 2022-2023 d\u00f6nemindeki sert faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc hat\u0131rlat\u0131larak, Fed\u2019in bug\u00fcnk\u00fc sabr\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ici arz \u015foklar\u0131na (\u00fcretim\/tedarik kaynakl\u0131 ge\u00e7ici fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131) tepki vermekten ka\u00e7\u0131nma iste\u011fini yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Powell\u2019dan Kevin Warsh\u2019a olas\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015f belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Warsh\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Fed\u2019in enflasyon performans\u0131n\u0131 ele\u015ftirdi\u011fi, bunun da uzun vadede daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 savunan) bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret edebilece\u011fi belirtiliyor. Bu durum, eyl\u00fclde ba\u015flayabilecek bir gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelebilir; 2027 ve sonras\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fck t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 (opsiyon\/kontrat de\u011ferlemesi) etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar kilitlendi: TD Securities, nisan FOMC\u2019de faizin %3,50-%3,75\u2019te kalmas\u0131n\u0131, Powell\u2019\u0131n y\u00f6nlendirmeden ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Petrol \u015foku belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131rken, 2026 sonuna kadar bekle; 2027\u2019de 75 bp indirim \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45590","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45590","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45590"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45590\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45590"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45590"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45590"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}